Mr FnG's We@ther Post

[Festngator]

Some people do not like reading Hurricane every time they open this site ( cue the scary weather channel music ). I can understand.

I use a couple blogs with mostly people who know what they are doing.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/LRandyB/show.html
Storm pilot

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/StormW/show.html
The comments on the first link to great info.

I also use the Weather underground tropical page and links, National Hurricane Center and the Navy site
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Also good
http://www.stormjunkie.com/pages/trophome/trophome.html
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/
http://www.hurricanecity.com/

As for Dean
NHC 5 am
DEAN IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 72 HR WITH
DEAN REMAINING ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.
THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS HAVE SEEMINGLY RESPONDED TO THE G-IV JET
MISSION BY SHOWING A SLIGHTLY WEAKER RIDGE NORTH OF DEAN...WITH A
MOTION THAT IS SLOWER AND A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. GIVEN THE INITIAL MOTION...THE FIRST 12 HR OF THE
FORECAST TRACK WILL BE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE...WITH A SLIGHT NUDGE TO THE RIGHT FROM 12-72 HR. AFTER 72
HR... THE FORECAST IS BECOMING MORE PROBLEMATIC DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES
IN THE EVENTUAL INTERACTION OF DEAN AND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
FORECAST TO BE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE GFDL AND UKMET MODELS
NOW CALL FOR DEAN TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF...WHILE THE CANADIAN...NOGAPS...AND EUROPEAN MODELS CONTINUE
TO FORECAST A WESTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE GFS AND THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS ARE
BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES. THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER 72 HR IS ALSO
NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEAN HAS APPARENTLY BEEN SLOWED BY A COMBINATION
OF DRY AIR INTRUSION IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND LIGHT WESTERLY
SHEAR. THESE CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 12-24 HR...SO THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING DURING THIS TIME.
AFTER 24 HR...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING...WITH MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLING FOR
DEAN TO REACH AT LEAST CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS THE SAME AS IN THE EARLIER ADVISORY THROUGH 72 HR...THEN
SLIGHTLY STRONGER THEREAFTER. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE
WEAKENING FROM 96 TO 120 HR IS BASED ON DEAN CROSSING THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AND IF IT INSTEAD MOVES THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IT
COULD REMAIN STRONGER.

This indicates a greater chance for Texas and a need to watch how Dean interacts with the low. REMEMBER the computers are only as good as the info and the is a reason for the cone

[SkyeDragon]

Thank you ! Wunderground is a good site but I always check your report for the day as well. Living, as we do, in the zone it pays to be aware.

[denideadhead]

Kinder name for the Thread is cool but I too consider this information important...it is easier to go here than search on my own and with so many coastline living friends out on the road it could prove very valuable so thanks

[linza22]

thank you for your weather report. some of us are far away, but still are concerned about our friends who might be in harms way. and there is always a home in north carolina if anyone needs it....

[Amy Winette]

I appreciate reading the updates too. It's far, but if anyone wants to visit Idaho, we have a guest room!

[BigDag]

Keep up the good work, Mr. Gator. You do a fine job of summarizing what we need to know. Thanks!

[Festngator]

Hurricane Dean plowed into Martinique this morning as a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds.it is likely that only the southern 1/4 of the island suffered heavy wind damage. The northern part of St. Lucia also suffered heavy wind damage, and Dean's winds lifted the roof off the pediatric wing at Victoria Hospital in St. Lucia's capital, Castries.The rains continue on the island this morning, and current radar imagery shows that Dean has intensified since departing Martinique. This is backed up by the 9:12am EDT Hurricane Hunter data, which found the pressure had dropped to 965 mb and the surface winds had risen to 105 mph. Dean's rainbands are dumping torrential rains on Martinique and Dominica, and life-threatening flooding and mudslides will be a major hazard on those islands today.

The models continue to unanimously show a grave threat to Jamaica and the Cayman Islands two days from now.Dean should be an extremely dangerous Category 4 storm by then. Haiti and eastern Cuba also appear likely to suffer severe flooding problems from Dean's outer spiral bands, but a direct hit in these areas appears unlikely.

The NOAA jet mission did not help at all with narrowing down the uncertainty in the computer forecasts for the 4-5 day period, which remain divergent.
GFS model takes Dean over the center of the Yucatan, then into the Texas/Mexico border region on Thursday.GFDL is much faster and further north, taking Dean through the Yucatan Channel and into northeastern Texas near Galveston on Wednesday.HWRF is in between and much slower, each model has a different solution for the behavior of an upper-level low pressure system expected to be over the Gulf of Mexico early next week,

[breambob]

Thanks, FnG, a kinder gentler thread title. Here's a cool set of articles from this month's Popular Mechanics, some good info:

http://www.popularmechanics.com/survival

[Festngator]

Printed the checklist from the link above and will check my boxes this weekend

Last night the GFDL model ran Dean through the middel of Cuba and the Yucatan up to NOLA. One of the blogs reported Louisiana's governor issued a state of emergency for LA. GFDL and the other models now show a Mexico or S Texas land fall as a Cat 3-4.

Dean is a very strong Cat 4 with upper winds as strong as one finds in Cat 5.Models send it to Jamacia. It has been wobbeling a fair amount whick excites the nonpros on the boards more than it should.

Warning this is the GFDL run that scared everyone with a cat5 Texas La landfall. Very cool graffics but scary.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200704_v5d.html?extraprod=v5d#a_topad

Current big 4 comp tracks
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200704_model.html#a_topad

[Amyloves...]

Well, I'm sticking with the majority of the models that show it nowhere near us! Hurricane season isn't fun like it used to be.

[bywterbro]

gfdl changed its track overnite, and now is back to showing very southern texas/mexico landfall....

[bywterbro]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200704_model.html

[Festngator]

Hurricane Dean put on an impressive round of rapid intensification last night, deepening 49 millibars in just 24 hours. Dean is now a major Category 4 hurricane with 150 mph winds. Reports from Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that Dean has likely peaked in intensity, and may be undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. The eye has shrunk from 20 miles in diameter yesterday down to 13 miles in diameter this morning. This inner eyewall will probably shrink even more and collapse sometime in the next day, to be replaced by a new outer eyewall 30-40 miles in diameter. Dean's winds may decrease to the lower end of the Category 4 scale, 135-140 mph, if that occurs.

Things are looking much brighter for Louisiana, as the GFDL model has come in line with all of the other models in predicting a landfall in Southern Texas or Northern Mexico. It now appears likely that Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula will knock Dean down a category or two before it can approach the Texas coast. The upper level low that was forecast by the GFDL to potentially steer Dean northwards appears to be weakening and moving westwards, out of the way of Dean.

Jamacia and the yucatan look to be hit hard and flash flooding may effect Hati and cuba

[pokerchick66]

Poor Jamaica. http://i121.photobucket.com/albums/o231/monica7966/shake.gif


http://i121.photobucket.com/albums/o231/monica7966/Deanstrack.gif

[Festngator]

Acually Jamacia has just missed several big storms. A reverend says it is due to prayer. So let us pray.

J Masters Post:

Can Jamaica pray away Hurricane Dean? The official forecast and nearly all of the computer models have put Jamaica in the bulls-eye for several days now. But hurricanes have a funny way of taking 11th-hour wobbles that spare the island a direct hit. Witness the remarkable turn Hurricane Ivan took in 2004, as it headed directly for the island with 145 mph winds. Ivan took a sudden turn 35 miles from the island, traced out an exact outline of the island's coast 35 miles offshore, then resumed its previous track. In the Jamaica Observer, Custos of Kingston, Reverend Carmen Stewart, contends that it was not the first time that prayers had influenced the turn of events when disaster faced Jamaica. "It has happened time and time again," Reverend Stewart says. "I know people have been praying and I don't see any other reason why it (the hurricane) would make such a drastic turn.... God hears prayer."

[pokerchick66]

That's what I'm talking about.

[Festngator]

Erin has gotten stronger

PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 19 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD AL052007
400 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007

...T.D. ERIN IS OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING...

FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA.

FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL COUNTIES
IN SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

ERIN CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND IS SUPPORTING
THUNDERSTORMS...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THUNDESTORM
WINDS ARE GUSTING TO OVER 50 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA.

AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 35.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.1 WEST...ABOUT 35 MILES WEST OF
OKLAHOMA CITY OKLAHOMA..

THE DEPRESSION WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 25 MPH...40 KM/HR...WITH SOME
GUSTS OVER 50 MPH IN THUNDERSTORMS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS AROUND 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM AROUND...AND TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER OF ERIN. THE MOISTURE FROM ERIN HAS MOVED
NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST...OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
STATES...THEREBY INCREASING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THESE
AREAS.

FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA...NORTHERN IOWA...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO.

FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR MANY COUNTIES
ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

[BigDag]

Acually Jamacia has just missed several big storms. A reverend says it is due to prayer. So let us pray.

J Masters Post:

Can Jamaica pray away Hurricane Dean? The official forecast and nearly all of the computer models have put Jamaica in the bulls-eye for several days now. But hurricanes have a funny way of taking 11th-hour wobbles that spare the island a direct hit. Witness the remarkable turn Hurricane Ivan took in 2004, as it headed directly for the island with 145 mph winds. Ivan took a sudden turn 35 miles from the island, traced out an exact outline of the island's coast 35 miles offshore, then resumed its previous track. In the Jamaica Observer, Custos of Kingston, Reverend Carmen Stewart, contends that it was not the first time that prayers had influenced the turn of events when disaster faced Jamaica. "It has happened time and time again," Reverend Stewart says. "I know people have been praying and I don't see any other reason why it (the hurricane) would make such a drastic turn.... God hears prayer."

Hopefully the strongest winds will stay south of the island. Looks like it's going to be a close call, either way.

[Festngator]

Extreme flooding N of Oklahoma City. Footage of rescues on CNN. Storm has dropped in intensity still flood threat. Look out Middle of the country

Dean is going south of Jamacia. Kingston will still get pounded but North side should do OK

The models have shifted south again. Still showing lots of moisture into Texas. Bush declared a pre-emergency for Texas. It is not La. Camen Is may catch a break. Following waves are not a issue at this time.

[Festngator]

The brunt of Dean missed Jamacia but the Island got hit pretty hard. Camens were spared. Dean is headed for the yucatan and into Mexico.

The Canadian Model which has been less than stellar predicts a major storm for South Fla on FRIDAY taking 2 days to cross to Tampa. Heres hoping it continues to be wrong.

Other models do not develope into a storm. just a lot of rain

[pokerchick66]

Is that Hurricane Felix you're talking about, Festn?

[Festngator]

If it reaches storm Status it would be Felix.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid=2854,19644915,2854_19a
rather large tropical wave is analyzed
near 55W and extends from near 25N south to around 8N.

We have taken some interest in the northern portion of
this wave,Right now, this area is under some wind shear
. However, shear forecast and
zonal shear maps indicate that conditions in the upper
levels of the atmosphere may become more conducive for
some slow development of this area. The CMC
(Canadian) model is the only one showing this
developing into a tropical depression over the Bahamas
in the next 72 hours. The other
models are all in agreement though of bring this area
(as a wave) on a more westward course, over the
Bahamas, then over Fla. within about 96 hours or so.
The CMC brings a depression westward into the Bahamas.

[Festngator]

http://i167.photobucket.com/albums/u133/Festngator/felixmonmodels.gif


A strong tropical wave several hundred miles to the northeast of Puerto Rico will need to be monitored closely over the next several days as it moves slowly to the west. A ridge of high pressure located to the northwest will keep the tropical wave moving in a westerly direction through the week, which could bring the system close to Florida by the weekend. Atmospheric winds and water temperatures are favorable for strengthening, but there is still some dry air and African dust nearby, which could inhibit development.

Story by AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson.

[Festngator]

Disturbance 92L needs to be watched
An area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave a few hundred miles northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands, "Invest 92L", has changed little in organization today. Wind shear is about 5-10 knots in this region, and an upper-level anticyclone has formed over 92L. This is a very favorable environment for intensification, should 92L start to get organized. The disturbance has the potential to develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. It is moving west to west-northwest at 15-20 mph, and will be near the central Bahamas by Wednesday, and the east coast of Florida by Friday. It does not appear that any troughs strong enough to recurve 92L will swing by until Saturday at the earliest.

Tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles
A tropical wave approaching the southern and central Lesser Antilles islands will bring showers and gusty winds to the islands Tuesday. Wind shear has dropped to 5-10 knots over the wave, and there is some potential for it to develop as it moves west to west-northwest into the Caribbean Sea.

Hurricane Dean is intensifying, the 3:54pm EDT eye report showed a 6 mb pressure drop in less than two hours, which is a big fall.. Dean will be a tremendously destructive storm for southern Mexico. Dean is powerful enough to be able to survive the crossing of the Yucatan as a hurricane, and hurricane advisories have been posted for cities on the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. It will hit a less populated area.We can expect Dean will carve out a path of great destruction all the way across the Yucatan Peninsula, then potentially re-intensify before hitting Mexico again along the Gulf Coast in the Bay of Campeche.

Jamaica and Haiti
News is still slow to emerge from Jamaica due to blocked roads and lack of electrical power. It does appear that the north coast, including Montego Bay, did not suffer extensive damage. News reports now indicate four people died on Haiti, and 150 homes were destroyed.

[Festngator]

Pray for Mexico.

CENTRAL PRESSURE IS THE NINTH LOWEST ON RECORD FOR AN ATLANTIC
BASIN HURRICANE...AND THE THIRD LOWEST AT LANDFALL BEHIND THE 1935
LABOR DAY HURRICANE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND HURRICANE GILBERT OF
1988 IN CANCUN MEXICO.

Maximum sustained winds are near 165 mph...270 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Dean is a category five hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Although some weakening is forecast as Dean crosses the
Yucatan Peninsula...Dean is expected to maintain hurricane strength
throughout the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles...95 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175
miles...280 km.

The hurricane hunter plane reported a minimum central pressure of
906 mb...26.75 inches...just before landfall.
Storm surge flooding of 12 to 18 feet above normal tide levels along
with large and dangerous battering waves is possible near and to
the north of where Dean made landfall along the East Coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula.
Dean is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches
over The Isthmus of Tehuantepec and Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico...
Belize...Guatemala...and northern Honduras...with maximum amounts
of up to 20 inches. These rains could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides.

the problem is that chetumal floods EASILY. probably as easy as belize city. chetumal has some very shallow drains and a small shower causes downtown chetumal to flood.

As For Felix/ 92L
Stilll heading for S Fla. Still 2 centers fighting wind shear 3-5 days out and heading into better conditions for development. Hope its a rain event.

[peteup]

YYR FnG. I've been following this storm ever since you first pointed to a possible problem. I'm praying too for the people of the Yucatan as well as Belize (OMG, the cayes) and Honduras...bad times ahead.

[NYMAMA]

It's gonna be bad.My prayers go out to all in harms way.

[Festngator]

fill up you tanks. Dean will come out in the 2nd largest oil feild. Will aleast shut down production for 2-3 days. Gas should go up.

[Michelino]

Thanks for these timely updates.

[Festngator]

Disturbance 92L
An area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave, 92L, is a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico. This disturbance is less organized than yesterday,some rather favorable upper-level winds. There is some dry air to the north that may be interfering with organization, and there is probably not enough turning motion available from this tropical wave to get 92L spinning. I don't expect significant development today given its current state of disorganization, but 92L deserves close scrutiny over the next few days. None of the reliable computer models develop the system

[Festngator]

Ohio Mich Flooding from Erin leftovers. Remember that flooding is the number 1 cause of death from tropical storms.54 Regions are now experiencing flooding in the US.
http://www.weather.gov/ahps/

Dean is now a Cat 1 heading for landfall this afternoon north of Veracruz. Mountian terrain will cause increased rain with flash flooding. Whats left of Dean will curve north in to US and may cause flooding like Erin.

Invest 92/Felix? had a good burst of covection but not circulation as it moves into Bahamas. Watch this through Friday for any devlopment.
THE GFS IS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE BAHAMAS SYSTEM, MOVING MID LEVEL
VORTICITY MAXIMA ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND TONIGHT
WHILE THE NAM IS SLOWER. SATELLITE DOES SHOW A BURST
OF CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE IN THE RIGHT PLACE EAST OF THE
BAHAMAS. WHILE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK MAY BE PART OF IT, I AM
ASSUMING THE GFS HAS THE RIGHT IDEA IN MOVING IT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA AND I WILL GO ABOVE THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
FOR POPS TODAY ESPECIALLY ALLIGATOR ALLEY SOUTH. THE TIMING AND
CONSISTENCY OF TROPICAL WAVES/UPPER LOWS HAS BEEN A TROUBLESOME IN
THE PAST, WITH CONVECTION ON CYCLES THAT ARE SOMETIMES A MYSTERY.
AT ANY RATE THE RESULT SHOULD BE THE SAME, AN INCREASE IN MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN INCREASE IN POPS TO ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY
BEGINNING TODAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

Sounds like rain to me.

[Festngator]

NHC

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WITH DEAN NOW WELL W OF THE AREA...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT AREA OF
WEATHER IN THE CARIBBEAN HAS SHIFTED TO THE SRN PORTION OFF THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. THE CONVECTION IN THIS VICINITY
MAY IN PART BE DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 72W AS DESCRIBED
ABOVE...BUT IS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.
MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE...AND THE WAVE NEARING THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...WILL PUSH W THROUGH THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ELSEWHERE AT THE SFC LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ARE IN PLACE
AND GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THU. THE UPPER PATTERN
IS DOMINATED BY THE LARGE AND ELONGATED UPPER LOW JUST S OF
CUBA...AND THE SRN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ERN
PORTION.

[Festngator]

National Weather Service San Diego California
issued by the National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard
910 am PDT Wednesday Aug 22 2007

On Sunday...it continues to look possible for the remnant moisture
from x-Hurricane Dean to come up into scalif via the sea of Cortez.
The remnant or spin up 583 subtropical low is prognosticated to be over
scalif sun through Monday before it ejects newrd in 585 SW flow. This
low could spread rain and thunderstorms throughout scalif. GFS precipitation
adds up to up to 1 inch of rain for the two day total. Still too soon
to put quantitative precipitation forecast in the forecast...but will beef up probability of precipitation as models seem to
be converging on the wetter solution. When x-Dean remnants cross north
into the sea of Cortez on Friday...there are about 50 units of vorticity
still available to help the subtropical upper low spin up.

[Festngator]

99 days left to the season. Dean's leftovers in the middle of Mexico. 92L is Gone went away-- not a storm in the sky in the middle (almost peak) of the season. Take some time off.

[Belle]

99 days left to the season. Dean's leftovers in the middle of Mexico. 92L is Gone went away-- not a storm in the sky in the middle (almost peak) of the season. Take some time off.

That my friend is a great post!!! Raising my coffee mug to that!

[Festngator]

It Looked great, but Erin is still kicking @ss-- 80+ mph winds in Chicago. Flooding. Michigan is next. This is a BAD storm and may reach NY.

Sorry I was happy for the south and missed this.

[papafrog]

It Looked great, but Erin is still kicking @ss-- 80+ mph winds in Chicago. Flooding. Michigan is next. This is a BAD storm and may reach NY.

Sorry I was happy for the south and missed this.

any explanation for why Erin was weaker in the gulf than it is over land?

[breambob]

any explanation for why Erin was weaker in the gulf than it is over land?

She met up with a strong cold arctic front. Weird weather. Lotta moisture moved north, and fast.
We were right next door and only got a light shower...

[sophisticated sissy]

As Betty Davis said, "Fasten your seat belts...we're in for a bumpy ride!"

[Festngator]

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[saturn]

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

That kind of news is always good to hear. :)

[Festngator]

A westward-moving tropical wave is kicking up some disorganized thunderstorm activity in the southern Caribbean, between Colombia and Jamaica. This area has a circulation at middle levels of the atmosphere, but no circulation at the surface, as seen in the 7:21am EDT QuikSCAT pass. The wave is under 10-20 knots of wind shear, and could undergo some slow development. None of the reliable models are predicting that this system will develop into a tropical depression, but it could bring heavy rains to Nicaragua and Honduras on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Of the four reliable forecast models for forecasting the genesis of tropical cyclones, only one--the UKMET--is now calling for formation of a tropical depression late this week off the coast of Africa. There are some active tropical waves that will start pushing off the African coast later this week, and we'll have to watch this region for development.

Invest 94L is predicted for slow development. 1st models have it all over the place. S.E. Bahamas to S. America. SHIPS model (whick=h has been wrong every time) has it a hurric@ne in 3 days. Watch it, and hope it is nothing.

71 MPH gusts in Minnsota with heavy rains.

Hurricane Dean's passage will be remembered not only by the people it affected, but by the ocean itself. A large, powerful storm like Dean generates a tremendous amount of mixing of the ocean, which brings up deep, cold water to the surface. Dean's passage cooled off the Gulf of Mexico waters near the Yucatan Peninsula by up to 3 degrees C (5.6 degrees F). The western Caribbean was not as strongly affected, since there is a much deeper layer of warm water there, thanks to the presence of the warm Loop Current. The cold water anomaly left by Dean will take several weeks to dissipate Cold Water = Weaker Storms.

[Festngator]

The 2 main features this morning are 94L in theCATL(Central Atlantic), and newly designateddisturbance 95L off the NC/SC coast.94L continues to move to the west at 15-20 mph. Thedisturbance appears that it may have taken in some dryair on its NW side earlier, and had come under some 20kts of wind shear in a small pocket directly to its north. However the last few frames of recent satellite imagery loops indicate that 94L may be getting slowly better organized. 94L is heading for an area of negligible wind shear, and SST's (Sea
Surface Temperatures) remain very warm.
The CMC (Canadian) model seems to be the only model that wants to develop this, and then a weaker system at that. However, based on the upper air pattern forecast, and warm sea temps...other than the
surrounding dry air...all indications would point to further slow development of this system. keep watching this. One model had this as a strong Fla Storm Yesterday but not today.


The next area being looked at is the low off the NC/SC coast, which has just been recently designated Disturbance 95L. Satellite imagery indicates
convection is starting to fire close to the center of the low. Most of the models do show this low developing,

2 scenarios for this as far as steering. It's going to go one of two ways...It continues south, stalls, then gets kicked out to the NE, or it continues south,
stalls, then gets kicked westward by the ridge that builds back in. This all depends on how far offshore it gets to the SE. The further offshore, the better. monitor this area closely as well.

[Festngator]

You can tell it's getting near peak hurricane season, since we are tracking four separate areas of disturbed weather that NHC has labeled as "Invests." None of these disturbances are a major concern at present, but we will need to watch them closely.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

95L and 96L are of the NC/SC coasts with 97 more dominat, further northand away from the coast. the jet steam should take this away and sendit to england.96 may kill 95. If it lives it will meander awhile untill some sort of steering feature developes.

97L is off the coast of Mexico where Dean's final Landfall was. May strengthen some but mainly a rain event

94L is about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles .The presence of a large, dusty area of dry air surrounding its north side continues to cause major problems for 94L. Once again today, this dry air is being sucked into 94L's thunderstorms. This dry air is creating strong downdrafts visible as arc-shaped surface cumulus clouds along the ocean surface. The presence of these arc-shaped surface clouds is usually a good sign that a storm is struggling with dry air and will not intensify significantly for at least the next 12 hours.

Water vapor satellite loops of the region show that 94L has not significantly moistened its environment. As the storm continues further west, it may be able to gradually do so, allowing it more of a chance to get organized. None of the reliable computer models forecast that 94L will develop into a tropical depression. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate this system on Friday afternoon.

Coast of Africa
None of the computer models are forecasting the development of a tropical depression during the coming week off the coast of Africa. There is a large surge of moisture with tropical waves embedded in it coming off the coast of Africa this week, so we will need to continue to monitor this area for development.

[Festngator]

The tropical wave about 200 miles east of the southern Lesser Antilles Islands, 94L, continues to become better organized, and will probably become a tropical depression today. This system has the potential to become a hurricane in the Caribbean Sea early next week. Visible satellite loops show a steadily organizing system, with low level spiral bands trying to form, and upper level outflow to the north, visible as cirrus clouds wafting from west to east.
None of the reliable computer models forecast that 94L will develop into a tropical depression, but it look like the models will be wrong on this. The usually unreliable Canadian model appears to have the best idea on what 94L will do. This model gradually strengthens 94L as it passes along the northern coast of South America. By Monday night, the Canadian model has 94L approaching the Honduras/Nicaragua border. Yesterday afternoon's run of the GFDL model had a similar solution, and predicted 94L would be a Category 2 hurricane at that time. The future strength of 94L depends critically upon how close it passes to the South American coast over the next two days. The Southeastern Caribbean just north of the South American coast is a climatologically unfavorable region for tropical cyclones, as they tend to pull dry continental air off of South America into their circulations. Many tropical cyclones passing through this region of the Caribbean die or become severely weakened. If 94L does survive and pass into the Central Caribbean, a more northwesterly turn to threaten Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba is not out of the question.
None of the computer models are forecasting the development of a tropical depression during the coming week off the coast of Africa.

[Festngator]

http://i167.photobucket.com/albums/u133/Festngator/track_early2.png

[Corona]

Thanks Fest...and I love the name change!

[Festngator]

Tropical Storm Felix lashed the islands of Grenada, Trinidad, Tobago, Barbados, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines with winds near tropical storm force and torrential rains this morning. Visible satellite loops show that Felix is a small storm, but is steadily expanding in size and growing more organized.

Felix is a major danger to Central America
The latest GFDL model forecasts that Felix will intensify into a Category 2 hurricane by the time it makes landfall in Belize Wednesday. The SHIPS intensity model is more aggressive, making Felix a Category 3 hurricane. Given that the environment in the Caribbean is much the same as we saw for Dean, I think we can expect a steady intensification of Felix to a Category 2 or 3 storm when it approaches the Honduras/Nicaragua border Monday night. On the current projected track of Felix, it would pass just north of the coast of Honduras, which would be an extremely dangerous situation for that country.

Felix's threat to other locales
Felix should being winds of tropical storm force to Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao as it passes to the north. These islands, and the northern coast of Venezuela, will also get heavy rains, but Felix should not cause any serious wind damage or floods in those areas. The ridge of high pressure that is steering Felix to the west is strong enough that a northward deviation of the storm into Jamaica and the Cayman Islands is unlikely. If Felix is going to deviate from the projected NHC forecast the next two days, I think a southward deviation into Nicaragua is more likely

If Felix does stay far enough north to make it into the Western Caribbean on Tuesday and Wednesday, there is a trough of low pressure forecast to swing north of the region that could turn Felix on a more northwesterly track into the Gulf of Mexico. The models are split on this, and we'll have to wait and see

A tropical wave in the mid-Atlantic, halfway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, has developed a closed circulation and some heavy thunderstorm activity near the center. This disturbance has been labeled "98L" by NHC this morning. The disturbance is under about 20 knots of winds shear from strong upper-level winds from the east-southeast, but this shear is forecast to gradually slacken over the next few days, and should be below 10 knots by Monday night, and under 5 knots by Wednesday. 98L is a threat to develop into a tropical depression as early as Monday. The 12Z (8am EDT) runs of the GFDL and HWRF models both develop 98L into a tropical storm, but keep it below hurricane strength. The storm will be approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands on Wednesday or Thursday. Given 98L's more northerly starting location, it may eventually affect Puerto Rico.

[Festngator]

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF FELIX WILL BE NEAR THE COASTS OF
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS EARLY ON
TUESDAY MORNING.

OBSERVATIONS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 165 MPH...270 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. FELIX IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES...BUT FELIX IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE STATUS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ALTHOUGH FELIX IS AN EXTREMELY POWERFUL HURRICANE IT HAS A VERY
SMALL WIND FIELD. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30
MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM.
FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES

A low off the SC coast may develope over next 24-48 hrs.

98L continues to move west. It has been affected by shear but maintains a strong low level low so it can get sronger given the right conditions.

[Festngator]

A small intense Felix is landing in northeast Nicaragua...just south of the border with Honduras. Think Andrew. This storm will be a very bad event with severe flooding in Honduras, No threat to US.

Henrette (Pacific) will end up sendind rain into the SW US. Watch for flooding.

99L of the SC coast may go south may go up the coast may cross Fla. May get much stronger, may never get any stronger.

98L contnues to move to the west towards the islands. Not much stonger but needs to be watched.

[Festngator]

East coast of the U.S. at risk from new tropical disturbance
An area of disturbed weather formed off the north coast of Florida yesterday, and this disturbance has been designated 99L by NHC. Strong upper level winds from the west are creating about 20 knots of wind shear over 99L, and satellite loops show that these winds are keeping all of 99L's heavy thunderstorm activity pushed over to the southeast quadrant of the storm. This shear is forecast to remain between 15 and 25 knots over the next five days by the GFS model, so any development of 99L should be slow. Despite the relatively high shear, the computer models are mostly calling for 99L to develop. Steering currents are weak in the region, and the models agree that 99L is likely to make a clockwise loop over the next three days, then potentially threaten (take your pick):

UKMET: North Carolina on Saturday
NOGAPS: Florida on Friday
HWRF: New York on Saturday
ECMWF: South Carolina on Friday
Canadian: North Carolina on Saturday

The remains of Henriette could bring heavy rains to Arizona, New Mexico, and western Texas late this week.

[festbabe]

I hate it when my weather becomes disturbed.

Thanks for the updates, FG. The whole bored is like getting a newcast - weather, sports, schedules, and the obligatory human interest story. :)

[Festngator]

Carolinas at risk from tropical disturbance 99L
An area of disturbed weather (99L) that formed along an old frontal boundary appears to have developed into a subtropical depression, and may grow into a tropical storm over the next day or two. Strong upper level winds from the west are creating about 15 knots of wind shear over 99L, and satellite loops of 99L show the classic appearance of a weak, sheared system--a nearly exposed low level circulation system, with all the heavy thunderstorm activity pushed to one side by strong upper-level winds. This shear is forecast to remain between 15 and 25 knots over the next two days, which should allow some slow development. A QuikSCAT pass from 6:52am EDT showed that 99L has a vigorous closed circulation with top winds of 25-30 knots (30-35 mph), so in my book this system is already a subtropical depression. The reason I call it subtropical is because there is still clear evidence of a frontal boundary attached to 99L, evident as long band of clouds extending from the south side of the storm (Figure 2). The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate this system at 2pm EDT, and NHC may wait until then to see if 99L can maintain its strength before naming it a subtropical depression.

The computer models are all unanimous in developing 99L into a tropical storm. The preferred tracks are into North Carolina or South Carolina by Sunday or Monday. The HWRF, SHIPS, and GFDL intensity models are calling for a weak tropical storm, strong tropical storm, and Category 2 hurricane, respectively, when 99L makes landfall Monday in the Carolinas. Residents of the east coast of the U.S., and the Carolinas in particular, should carefully watch the development of 99L.

Anyone going to the beach on the East coast south of Virgina needs to be aware of rip currents

[Festngator]

U.S. East coast watches tropical disturbance 99L
An area of disturbed weather (99L) that formed along an old frontal boundary has grown less organized over the past 24 hours, thanks to an increase in wind shear. Strong upper level winds from the west are creating about 20-25 knots of wind shear over 99L, and satellite loops of 99L show a much less organized circulation, with only a few thunderstorms far removed from the center. The disturbance is interacting with an upper-level trough of low pressure, and this trough is creating a long line of thunderstorms from southwest to northeast that passes just east of the center of 99L's circulation.

Wind shear is forecast to drop below 15 knots on Friday, which may allow some slow development. I wouldn't be surprised to see 99L become a tropical storm on Saturday. Most of the computer models bring 99L to the coast of North Carolina on Sunday. This does not give it much time to develop, and it is unlikely 99L would be able to intensify into a hurricane. The storm may not develop into a tropical cyclone at all, but even as a non-tropical storm, residents of the Carolinas can expect heavy rain and high winds on Sunday from this system. The storm is then expected to track northward and then northeastward along the coast, bringing heavy rains to the mid-Atlantic and New England areas on Monday and Tuesday. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate 99L at 2pm EDT today, but NHC may cancel this flight unless 99L shows some significant improvement in organization.

[ohio]

Mr. F, if you have any sway, send some disturbed weather up here. Our trees are dying...rainfall is 13" below normal.

[Carolina Beadhead]

I'm sure hoping they're right and we get some rain here. Our trees are dying, too...

[Festngator]

NC should get rain, alot. The models are having a hard time with this, but the "good" ones agree where it will go-- SC/NC then north. How strong? I think (warning:advice from a lawyer.Worse on weather) the lower predictions are on as the shear has been up on this.

[Carolina Beadhead]

Let's hope it's not just the eastern part of the state.

[Festngator]

The center will not go to far west,sorry. Landfall 96 hrs away. will start west motion today. How strong? tropical storm to cat1. Not a good beach weekend

[Festngator]

An area of disturbed weather (99L) that formed along an old frontal boundary has grown much better organized over the past six hours, thanks to an decrease in wind shear. Strong upper level winds from the southwest are still creating about 15-20 knots of wind shear over 99L, but satellite loops of 99L show that a more organized circulation has formed, with heavy thunderstorm activity starting to build north of the center. The GFS-based SHIPS model is predicting wind shear will fall to 5 knots on Saturday over 99L, and this should allow the storm to organize into a tropical storm by Saturday. The storm may have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before it makes landfall Sunday night in South Carolina or North Carolina, as predicted by the latest run of the GFDL model. However, the SHIPS intensity model and the HWRF models are calling for a tropical storm and tropical depression, respectively, at landfall. My best guess is that this will be a 60-65 mph tropical storm at landfall, but there is a very high amount of uncertainty with this forecast. The storm is then expected to track northward and then northeastward along the coast, bringing heavy rains and high winds to the mid-Atlantic and New England areas on Monday and Tuesday. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate 99L at 5pm EDT today

[Festngator]

Subtropical Storm Gabrielle formed tonight off the NC coast. She is headed towards NC coast.Wind shear is 10-20 knots over the storm. This shear, combined with the rather large and poorly-organized circulation, will not allow much intensification, and Gabrielle will have a tough time becoming stronger than a 55-mph storm at landfall.

A couple of the models develope a storm in the Gulf of Mexico in the next few days.keep watching. Also a couple big waves have come off the African coast. No agreement in the models on these.

[Festngator]

reports from the Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft
indicate that Gabrielle has strengthened. The aircraft reported a
peak flight-level wind of 61 kt about 2 nmi southeast of the
center...which has reformed within the deep convection underneath
the mid-level rotation oberserved overnight.The storm track is a little more west but not enough to help the western NC drought. This storm continues to get stronger than the models predicted. May reach cat1 as it is over warm water and has low shear.
GABRIELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17
KM/HR. GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTH LATER TODAY AND
THEN TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF
GABRIELLE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...OVER A VERY SMALL AREA NEAR THE CENTER. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE FEW REMAINING HOURS PRIOR TO
LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

Coastal flooding is possible

Gulf of Mexico Invest 90L
A low pressure system nnw of Cuba is now on the Navy site.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
The models send it towards Texas and then turn it East. Texas to La depending on the model. The SHIPS model (which is not very good) gives it 63kts at 72 hrs and 70 kts at 90 hrs.(timeline is more important than strenght)

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AT THIS
TIME...THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

[Festngator]

Two new Invests headed towards East Coast
92L is at 57 west (Fla E coast is 80west). Not a lot of onfo yet. The models have it up through the Bahamas end of the week. SHIPS slowly developes the stormWATCH THIS STORM

91L is at 33w and also little info. Heading a little south of 92.Shear is forecast to remain below 10 knots over the disturbance over the next few days, and this system has the potential to develop as it heads west at 15 mph. Several of the computer models do develop this system, and predict that it may begin to acquire a more northwesterly track in response to a big non-tropical storm over the mid-Atlantic between Europe and the U.S. This disturbance has an environment similar to the one that spawned Hurricane Dean. The GFS-based SHIPS intensity model is forecasting that this will be a Category 1 hurricane 4-5 days from now,

Gabrielle is ashore at Jacksonville NC. Did not get stronger. Rain is to the SE so not what was needed.

[Festngator]

"An area of disturbed weather near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands (designated 92L by NHC yesterday) has become disorganized and is no longer a threat"

Tropical Storm Gabrielle limped ashore over North Carolina's Outer Banks Sunday afternoon as a minimal tropical storm, bringing wind gusts up to 61 mph. Strong upper-level winds ripped Gabrielle apart as it came ashore, and has reduced it to a tropical depression. The biggest impact from the storm was some isolated minor flooding due to rains around eight inches. Gabrielle's rains did not stretch far enough inland to have a significant effect on North Carolina's drought, unfortunately

An area of disturbed weather in the southern Gulf of Mexico (90L) remains disorganized. Wind shear is not a major impediment to development--upper level winds from the north are creating about 10-15 knots of wind shear over the region, and this shear is expected to remain below 15 knots through Wednesday. However, given the extremely disorganized appearance of this disturbance on satellite loops, any development should be slow to occur. This system is headed west-northwest at 10-15 mph towards Texas.


A strong tropical wave near 10N 38W, about 1000 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, is headed west to west-northwest at 10-15 mph. This system (91L) has the potential to develop into a tropical depression later this week. Shear is forecast to remain near 15 knots over three days, which may allow some slow development. Later in the week, shear is expected to drop below 10 knots, and this could lead to a better chance of development. Both the HWRF and GFDL models predict that this will be a hurricane five days from now. This seems over-aggressive, given the wave's current state of disorganization, and the shear forecast. I think the earliest this would become a tropical depression is Wednesday.

A large extratropical storm over the mid-Atlantic between Europe and the U.S. is expected to pull 91L on a more northwesterly track by mid-week. This would put 91L in a position to threaten the northern Lesser Antilles Islands seven days from now.

[Festngator]

A strong tropical wave near 11N 43W, halfway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, is headed west-northwest at 10-15 mph. This system (91L) has the potential to develop into a tropical depression later this week.This storm is definitely a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands. It is too early to say if the northern islands are more at risk, as the current model runs are indicating. The system may represent a threat to the U.S. East Coast ten or more days from now, but there is no way to judge the likelihood of this

Gulf of Mexico
The area of disturbed weather in the southern Gulf of Mexico has diminished overnight, but does have the potential to grow again today before moving ashore over Texas and northern Mexico tonight and Wednesday morning, bringing heavy rain. New thunderstorm activity building off the Gulf Coast of Florida is very disorganized and is not a threat to develop.

Rest of September outlook
We're halfway. September 10 marks the peak of hurricane season in the Atlantic, and the frequency of hurricanes and tropical storms starts to decline now as water temperatures begin to cool and wind shear begins to rise. However, more activity typically occurs after September 10 than before, due to the fact that the ocean takes a long time to cool off. Given that we've already had 7 named storms so far this year, another 7 or 8 named storms are probably in order. The latest Dr. Bill Gray/Phil Klotzbach monthly forecast calls for 8 more named storms, with 5 of them hurricanes--two of these being intense hurricanes. They anticipate a later than usual end to hurricane season, due to the cooler than average conditions in the Eastern Pacific that might signal the beginning of a La Niña event. La Niña events typically bring lower than average wind shear to the Atlantic. Since high wind shear is usually what brings an end to hurricane season (this was certainly the case last year), development of a La Niña event over the next few months should act to prolong this year's hurricane season.

Sea Surface Temperatures are near average to 0.5 °C above average over much of the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes (10° N to 20° N, from Africa to Central America). While this is nothing like the record SSTs observed in 2005, this is still a lot of extra heat energy.African dust activity has been quite low the past month, (dust hurts storms).steering pattern favors a near-normal chance of hurricane strikes for the entire Atlantic. Due to the weak nature of the troughs of low pressure expected, we'll have fewer recurving storms that miss land than normal. Indeed, all but one of the seven named storms we've had this year have affected land

[Festngator]

The strom in the gulf is coming on shore in Galveston this morning. It is a rain event which Texas does not need. At some point it will sweep NE taking lots of rain into La.

91L (soon to be Humberto)
A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 13N43W OR ABOUT
1000 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE THIS
MORNING. THE MINIMUM PRES IS ANALYZED 1009 MB
Not a TD yet but close
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
5-10 KT.

[Festngator]

91L (soon to be Humberto).

I was wrong (don't tell Ms. FnG I said that.) The depression off Texas became Humberto and 91L is TD8. That said:
NOLA is in for a bumpy night as Humberto lashs out with wind and rain. Hope this moves on to areas that need rain.

Tropical Depression Eight formed this morning, and has the potential to grow into a hurricane in the next 3-4 days. This morning's 8:18am EDT pass of the European ASCAT satellite captured the circulation of TD 8 nicely, and showed that it was still somewhat elliptical, which will slow down intensification until the circulation grows more circular. ASCAT estimated winds up to 25 knots (30 mph) on the northwest side of TD 8. Satellite loops of TD 8 have shown a slow but steady improvement in organization since early this morning. A large area of thunderstorms reach high in the atmosphere (as evidenced by very cold cloud tops on infrared satellite imagery), an upper-level outflow channel has opened to the south, and some low-level spiral banding is now apparent. Several satellite intensity estimates put TD 8 at tropical storm strength already.Watch This TD 8 the opportunity to grow to a Category 1 hurricane by Saturday

[rosetree]

As I read the map from 4:00PM, the rain will miss us and track further west then NE through central LA and central MS...
http://www.nola.com/hurricane/wide.ssf?http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0907W+gif/144527W_sm.gif

[grisgris]

Looks like we may get some much needed rain here in NELA Friday. My trees will be happy.

[Festngator]

A surprise Hurricane Humberto ripped into Texas near the Louisiana border this morning, bringing winds of 85 mph and torrential rains to the coast. Humberto didn't even exist yesterday morning, and grew from a tropical depression at 11am EDT to a hurricane just 14 hours later. As the hurricane intensified, it grew in size and height, allowing the storm to respond to upper-level winds that changed its course to a north-northeastly path. This allowed Humberto to stay over water parallel to the coast for the crucial hours needed for it to reach hurricane strength. Storms like Humberto give us the sobering reminder that as much as hurricane forecasting has improved in recent years, there is still much we do not understand--particularly in regards to intensity forecasting. If Humberto had had another 12-24 hours over water, it could have been a major hurricane that would have hit without enough time to evacuate those at risk.

Port Arthur, TX, on the border with Louisiana, has taken a heavy hit from Humberto. A portion of an apartment complex's roof was ripped off by the storm's winds, and fell on four vehicles. Widespread power outages were reported, with heavy flooding. A Personal Weather Station in downtown Port Arthur recorded a rainfall rate of over 2 inches per hour before failing at 3:30am EDT; a second station in the city recorded a minimum pressure of 989.7 mb before it, too failed. Nearby Beaumont, TX recorded sustained winds of 54 mph, gusting to 84 mph, at 5am EDT. On the coast where Humberto came ashore, McFadden wildlife Refuge measured sustained winds of 60 mph with a gust to 75 mph at 3:35am EDT. Winds of 67 mph gusting to 76 were recorded at nearby Sabine Pass. A crane at a work site at Sabine Pass recorded a wind gust of 118 mph at a height of 40 feet.

While some moderate wind damage will affect Port Arthur and surrounding areas, and two tornadoes were reported near Galveston, the main threat from Humberto remains its rains. Estimated rain from the Lake Charles radar (Figure 2) show that amounts in excess of ten inches have fallen near Beaumont, with some higher amounts on the Louisiana coast over an unpopulated swampy area. Rains in excess of ten inches may fall along the path of Humberto as it plows through central Louisiana and into Mississippi. The storm may stall out and die over Mississippi, over the weekend, making for a dangerous flooding situation there. Hopefully, Humberto's rains will make it to Alabama, which is suffering its worst drought on record.

[festbabe]

My thoughts are with our neighbors in SE TX and SW LA. Quite the storm!

[Festngator]

Tropical Storm Ingrid
800 miles w of the Lesser Antillies. Not a good environment for geating stronger. will go North of the Islands. Check back in a couple days to see where she is.

Storm formerly known as Humberto is streached from Columbus Ga where the Radars show pre tornado activity, up to the Tenn./Virg./NC borders. Watch for some strong winds and flooding

[BigDag]

Not that it is really an appropriate discussion for a Jazzfest bored, but since the thread is here..

Did you, Mr. Gator, see the radar image of Humburdo right around 6 PM CT Wednesday? It sure looked like a hurricane to me. Tight circulation, eye wall forming; I thought for sure the NHC would raise a flag in their 7 PM advisory, but they didn't. I figured they must have known what they were doing. Point is, it did form quickly, but it shouldn't have been as big of a surprise as it was. Did someone fall asleep on the job?

[Festngator]

It should be noted that infared satellite imagery early this morning showed deep convection over the southwestern Caribbean and this deep convection may be the embryo for a tropical cyclone to form within the next 4 to 6 days.
Some computer models develop a tropical depression in the Southwest Caribbean next week south of Jamaica. As seen on satellite imagery of this area, there is a huge area of thunderstorms in this area, so this location will have to be monitored for possible tropical development.



In answer to the question I quote one of the "experts" who missed this:
Humberto strengthened from a tropical depression to a hurricane in just 14 hours while only about 50 miles off the coast. This caught many residents in SE Texas and SW Louisiana (where the hurricane made its greatest impacts) as well as all meteorologists, including myself, off guard. This came as a result of very warm sea surface temperatures, a slight adjustment by the storm in track that allowed it to hover over the ocean, and the help of an approaching cold front that helped the hurricane "exhale" excess cloud mass and kept the storm well organized.

[Festngator]

Huberto never recurved. which is great.

Tropical Storm Ingrid is slowly disintegrating in the face of strong upper-level westerly winds, which are creating about 30 knots of wind shear over the storm. Satellite loops of Ingrid show that the shear has removed almost all of Ingrid's heavy thunderstorm activity. This wind shear is expected to remain around 30 knots through Sunday, then gradually decline to 10 knots by Monday. It is questionable whether Ingrid can survive such high sustained levels of shear, and there is at least a 60% chance the storm will be destroyed. Even in the event the storm is destroyed, it could regenerate early next week and threaten Bermuda. It is unclear at this time whether Ingrid (or its remains) will recurve out to sea or be forced westward towards the U.S. in the 6-10 day time frame.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET models all suggest a tropical depression may form in the Western Caribbean on Wednesday and move northwards into the Gulf of Mexico or over Florida.
A tropical wave a few hundred miles west-southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving west at 10-15 mph. This wave shows no signs of development, but is under only 10 knots of wind shear. Shear is expected to remain below 10 knots over the next 2-3 days over the wave, which may allow it to develop

[Festngator]

The four reliable computer models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis all predict that once this area of disturbed weather crosses Florida and emerges into the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday, wind shear will drop enough to allow a tropical depression to form. The path such a storm might take is highly uncertain, and the models have diverged significantly since yesterday's runs. A strong ridge of high pressure is setting up over the eastern half of the U.S., and is expected to remain anchored in place for at least ten days. This is the type of steering pattern we experienced during the Hurricane Season of 2005, and favors westward-moving storms. This ridge will act to steer any developing storm in the Gulf of Mexico towards the west, to the Texas coast, or even west-southwest, to the northeastern mainland Mexico. However, this steering pattern will be complicated by the presence of an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico. This upper-level low is currently forming over northern Florida, and is expected to drift southwestward or westward over the Gulf later this week, and gradually weaken. Depending on the strength and movement of this low, a storm that forms in the eastern Gulf could be steered anywhere from the Florida Panhandle to northeastern Mexico. One model, the NOGAPS, predicts that the storm will move west-southwest into the Bay of Campeche (southwestern Gulf of Mexico), and stall out for many days. The UKMET, GFS, and ECMFW models foresee that the storm will make landfall in Texas or Louisiana Sunday or Monday. All residents along the Gulf of Mexico coast need to consider what actions they might need to take if a hurricane develops in the Gulf this weekend. The highest danger region is from New Orleans westward to Brownsville, Texas

[BigDag]

Listen to Mr. Gator, friends. Don't get caught off guard like those folks in Texas last week. Stay aware of what might be happening in the Gulf this weekend.

[Festngator]

An area of disturbed weather (labeled "93L" by NHC this afternoon) has become much more organized this afternoon. Animations of long-range radar out of Miami, Florida and satellite loops show that thunderstorm activity off the Florida coast is steadily increasing. A surface circulation has not yet fully formed, but has almost closed off just south of Grand Bahama Island, about 100 miles east of Fort Lauderdale, Florida. Winds at Settlement Point on Grand Bahama Island were blowing at 9 knots out of the east at 9am this morning, but shifted to northerly and now northeasterly, and have increased to 32 knots (37 mph), with gusts to 34 knots (39 mph, tropical storm force). Winds at Freeport on Grand Bahama Island have increased to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph.

Water vapor satellite loops show that an upper-level low pressure system has detached from its parent trough over northern Florida. This upper level low is moving southwest, creating more favorable upper-level winds over 93L. Wind shear over 93L has fallen from 30 knots to 20 knots in the past six hours. A tropical or subtropical depression could form before it moves over South Florida tonight or Wednesday morning. Regardless, South Florida and the western Bahamas can expect heavy rains of 3-6 inches from this system. Radar estimated rainfall has been as high as three inches in some spots over the ocean thus far.

Most of the computer models predict that a tropical or subtropical depression will form from 93L once it crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. The path such a storm might take is uncertain. A strong ridge of high pressure is setting up over the eastern half of the U.S., and is expected to remain anchored in place for at least ten days. This is the type of steering pattern we experienced during the Hurricane Season of 2005, and favors westward-moving storms
Depending on the strength and movement of this low, the counterclockwise flow around the low could steer 93L on a northwesterly path towards Louisiana. This is the solution of the latest (12Z) runs of the UKMET, GFS, and GFDL models. The intensity such a storm may reach is also highly uncertain. The SHIPS intensity model brings 93L to Category 1 hurricane strength by Saturday. The GFDL predicts 93L will hit New Orleans as a strong tropical storm Friday night. The NOGAPS model predicts 93L will eventually dissipate over the southwestern Gulf. The HWRF model does not develop 93L, and takes the disturbance to the central Louisiana coast on Saturday afternoon. All residents along the Gulf of Mexico coast need to consider what actions they might need to take if a hurricane develops in the Gulf over the next few days.

[Wondering]

http://img508.imageshack.us/img508/9320/trackearly1js5.png

[Festngator]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200793_v5d.html?extraprod=v5d#a_topad

[Wondering]

Once 93L emerges into the Gulf of Mexico Thursday, all of the models indicate the storm will intensify. This is a very complex forecast situation, since the storm is starting out with the cold core of an ordinary non-tropical low pressure system, and will transition to a warm-cored tropical storm. If the surface low pressure system sets up underneath the upper level low, as some of the models are predicting, the transition to a warm core system will probably take at least a day. A storm undergoing such a process cannot intensify rapidly while this is occurring. This means that if 93L hits New Orleans Friday night/Saturday morning as the GFS and GFDL models are predicting, the storm will likely still be below hurricane strength--as predicted by the 8am EDT run of the SHIPS intensity model--or a minimal Category 1 hurricane--as predicted by this morning's 06Z run of the GFDL model. I think a tropical storm is more likely. Such a track would take it just north of the high heat content waters of the Loop Current in the central Gulf of Mexico (Figure 2). If 93L takes a more southerly track as the ECMWF and NOGAPS models predict, it will have an extra day over water, and more time to firmly establish a warm core. A warm core, fully tropical system is capable of must faster intensification rates. A more southerly track would also take the storm over the high heat content waters of the Loop Current, further aiding the transition to a warm core system. Texas could see a Category 1 or 2 hurricane on Sunday in this scenario. Slowing down the intensification will be the presence of plenty of dry air to the northwest, however, and a tropical storm may be all that Texas would see.

[Festngator]

A very complicated weather situation over the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic waters off the Southeast U.S. coast associated with a non-tropical low pressure system (93L), has brought heavy rains to Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina over the past 12 hours. A cold-cored upper level low pressure system a few hundred miles southwest of Tampa, Florida is primarily responsible for the the action. Late yesterday afternoon, a separate area of surface low pressure formed near Daytona Beach, bringing high surf and heavy rains of up to five inches along the Florida coast from Daytona to Jacksonville. This low moved inland over Florida, but the associated surge of moisture rotated northwards all the way to South Carolina

Recent Satellite loops and the Tampa Bay long range radar show that this non-tropical low pressure system is beginning to get more organized and is acquiring tropical characteristics. Substantial pressure falls are occurring at the surface underneath the upper level low, and this system is on its way to becoming a subtropical depression. A surface low pressure system vertically aligned with a cold-cored upper level low will usually take two or more days to make the transition to a warm-cored tropical storm. Rapid intensification cannot occur until the system is fully warm-core. Since landfall is expected Saturday between the Florida Panhandle and Southeast Louisiana, 93L probably does not have time to become fully tropical. If 93L makes landfall Saturday, it should not have winds stronger than about 55 mph. The GFDL, HWRF, and SHIPS intensity models all keep 93L's winds below 55 mph. If the storm spends an extra day over water and makes it to Texas, as the ECMWF model predicts, 93L could become fully tropical and make landfall as a strong tropical storm with 60-70 mph winds. However, there is plenty of dry air in the environment, and I don't think the storm will be able to intensify to a strong tropical storm. The primary threat from 93L will be heavy rain, and the northern Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Texas border can expect a soaking from this system.

[Festngator]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI SEP 21 2007

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA...ANALYZED 1005 MB...OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NIGHT
AND IS NOW CENTERED ABOUT 85 NM SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA.
SATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR DATA...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...
BUT DOES NOT YET HAVE THE CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL CYCLONE. SQUALLS WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 TO 35 MPH
HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT OFFSHORE NOAA AUTOMATED STATIONS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME
A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY TOWARD THE WNW. ALL INTERESTS ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM...AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS COULD BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL BE INVESTIGATING THE
SYSTEM IN A FEW HOURS.

[Festngator]

A large low pressure system (93L) over the Gulf of Mexico has gradually been acquiring tropical characteristics, but is in no hurry to intensify. Top surface winds measured at buoys in the Gulf of Mexico this morning have been 30 knots (35 mph), so this storm could technically qualify as a tropical depression if the current hurricane hunter mission finds a well-defined center of circulation. There are two Hurricane Hunters aircraft in the storm right now, and they have found several swaths of surface winds of 35 mph. Long range radar loops from the Florida Panhandle clearly show the storm's circulation, but the low level spiral bands are not well organized and are only slowly getting more organized. Satellite loops show a large, sloppy-looking storm. Storms that start off as large, non-tropical systems like 93L typically take several days to organize and become fully tropical, and 93L will not have time to become anything worse than a minimal tropical storm. The storm is capable of dumping some heavy rains along its path--radar estimated precipitation from the Tallahassee radar (Figure 1) were as high as three inches. As 93L becomes more tropical in nature, it will be able to generate higher rain amounts. But, with the storm expected to move inland by Saturday afternoon, it does not appear 93L has time to generate the kind of tropical rains that would make it a serious flood threat.
Elsewhere in the tropics
An area of disturbed weather has developed in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica, in association with a surface trough of low pressure. This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Cozumel and Cancun on Saturday as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. The region will need to be watched for development on Sunday as it crosses the Gulf of Mexico. The NOGAPS and GFS models predict an upper air pattern favorable for formation of a tropical depression over the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday and MondayHeavy rains from this system may hit Louisiana and/or Texas on Monday.

[BigDag]

...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL
DEPRESSION TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE
85.5 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES... 75 KM...SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA
FLORIDA AND ABOUT 185 MILES...300 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MOBILE
ALABAMA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. A TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL BE MOVING NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL
STORM LATER TODAY.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
DEPRESSION.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA THROUGH TONIGHT.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...29.2 N...85.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[BigDag]

As forecasters try to determine what will happen with the broad area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico, the National Weather Service is not expecting a land falling tropical storm in Southeast Louisiana. A statement from the Weather Service says: "An area of low pressure is expected to approach the area from the Gulf of Mexico Saturday. Higher than normal tides...periods of heavy rainfall and strong winds around or greater than gale force are possible Saturday." Gale force winds are from about 40 - 46 mph, but the computer models vary from bringing those conditions to the region as a worst case scenario... to the New Orleans area staying well west of the system and the region seeing very little adverse weather. It's that uncertainty that is giving emergency planners fits. Louisiana Governor Kathleen Blanco, meanwhile, is advising parishes to evacuate residents in trailers and low lying areas. Local leaders share the concerns for people outside of levee protection and those in trailers, but as of 8:00am had not issued any evacuation orders. Instead advising residents find family and friends in safer structures to stay with if they can. In St. Bernard Parish, officials are meeting today to made decisions. A statement from St. Bernard says, "No evacuation order has been issued... Parish President Henry "Junior'' Rodriguez emphasized."
Leaders, however, do say that St. Bernard residents living outside the levee protection area or in FEMA trailers are being advised they need to be prepared to evacuate on if strong winds are heading toward the parish."
In Plaquemines Parish, the approach is much the same. Plaquemines Parish President Billy Nungesser said in a statement: Plaquemines Parish is monitoring the weather situation in the Gulf of Mexico and at this time has made no decisions about evacuations as the system has yet to organize or strengthen. St. Tammany Parish President Kevin Davis says, "We've already met with the school board and the Red Cross." He says they will open shelters if they are needed on the Northshore, but they have also not issued any evacuations. New Orleans and Jefferson Parish are also preparing to move trailer residents to safer shelter if the need arises.
So far, no evacuations. Kenner officials have identified two shelters and will open them if conditions warrant.

[Festngator]

A track into the NOLA area would take it over a very
small pool of warmer water just around the time of
landfall. Upper level winds have become more
favorable for development, and on the most current
wind shear map, some ridging at the 200 mb level is
evident. This pattern is still forecast to continue.
Most of the models do not take this much past minimal
Tropical Storm strength, some not past depression
stage. However my thought on this, with convection
starting to show up near the center, feeder bands
starting to become more prominent, warm Gulf water
(29-30C) should this track as projected by the models,
I will not rule out a moderate to strong Tropical
Storm prior to landfall, possibly 50-60 mph range.
Again, all of this remains to be seen by how quickly
this system can become better organized and become
purely tropical. The next 12 hours will be the key
time frame on this system.

[Festngator]

A disturbance ("94L") in the Gulf of Mexico has not gotten better organized today and has just about run out of time. Long range radar out of New Orleans shows the advance rain showers from 94L are already at the coast, and there are no signs of spiral banding, rotation, or organization in either the radar imagery or satellite loops of 94L. Wind shear has increased to 10-20 knots over the Gulf of Mexico, and it now appears unlikely 94L will be able to develop into a tropical depression.

Lesser Antilles disturbance 97L
Of greater concern is a tropical wave (97L) about 300 miles east of Barbados in the Lesser Antilles Islands. This wave has not gotten any better organized during the past 12 hours, as seen in the latest Satellite imagery. The wave is under about 10 knots of wind shear. The shear is forecast to remain below 10 knots through Tuesday, and there is some favorable anticyclonic outflow at high levels, and 97L has a good chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. At that point, the future evolution of the storm depends strongly on how far north it is. If 97L moves northwest over Puerto Rico on Wednesday, as the GFDL and some of the global models predict, it may encounter a zone of high wind shear associated with the bottom part of a trough of low pressure positioned to the north of Puerto Rico. This shear should keep the storm from becoming a hurricane. If 97L stays on a more west-northwest track and penetrates into the Caribbean Sea south of Puerto Rico, as predicted by the simpler BAMM model, the storm is likely to encounter less shear, and could grow into a hurricane.

A tropical wave "96L" in the far eastern Atlantic, about 650 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands, has gotten more organized during the past 24 hours, The circulation associated with the wave is unusually large. The storm will be a little slow to get going, since the storm is so far south. At the storm's current latitude--6 degrees north of the Equator--it cannot leverage the earth's spin very much to help spin up the huge circulation it has. Despite it's close proximity to the Equator, low-level spiral bands have already formed, as seen in recent microwave satellite The HWRF model develops 96L into a 55-mph tropical storm by Tuesday, then weakens the system the remainder of the week. The GFDL model does not develop 96L at all.

[Zydekitten]

http://images.ucomics.com/comics/ch/2007/ch070922.gif

[Festngator]

a new surface circulation has developed in the Gulf of Mexico near 23N 93W, about 350 miles southeast of Brownsville, Texas. Heavy thunderstorm activity has begun forming near the center of circulation, and this system has the potential to become a tropical depression tonight or Tuesday. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and is expected to remain low for the next three days. The disturbance is headed west-northwest at less than 10 mph, and should bring heavy rains to northern Mexico--and possibly southern Texas--by Wednesday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate the disturbance this afternoon.

[Festngator]

Tropical Storm Karen.
...Tropical Depression Twelve becomes Tropical Storm Karen...no
immediate threat to land areas...

at 500 am AST...0900z...the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 10.4 north...longitude 38.0 west or about
1565 miles...2520 km...east of the Windward Islands.

Karen is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph...26 km/hr...
and this general motion is expected to continue for the next
24 hours.2 models send it towards the Bahamas and 3-4 send it north to churn fish.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...65 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24
hours.

INVEST 97

Currently over the Lessers this storm is heading towards S Fla/cuba straights. Not suppose to get stronger due to shear and land contact. Watch to see if it misses land and/or if it makes the Gulf.

INVEST 94

Spinning off Mexico SSE of Texas
Heavy thunderstorm activity has begun forming near the center of circulation, and this system has the potential to become a tropical depression by Tuesday. Wind shear is about 15-20 knots over the disturbance, and is expected to remain 15 knots or below for the next three days. The disturbance is headed west-northwest at less than 10 mph, and should bring heavy rains to northern Mexico--and possibly southern Texas--by Wednesday. However, most of the computer models show that 94L may stall before it reaches the coast, then loop erratically in the Gulf for several days. A Hurricane Hunter flight is scheduled to investigate 94L Tuesday afternoon.

[BigDag]

I'm not happy about that "loop erratically in the Gulf" part.

[ozzie]

Crap that we're in a cyclone (hurricane) area on the opposite time zone. Means I'm friggin anxious all year round.

Stay safe y'all.

[Festngator]

South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
Forecast team: Charlie//

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?YEAR=2008&MO=09&BASIN=SHEM&STORM_NAME=null&PROD=microvap&AID_DIR=/data/www/pacific/southern_hemisphere/microvap/dmsp&PHOT=yes&ARCHIVE=active&NAV=tc&AGE=Latest&STYLE=tables

[Festngator]

Tropical Storm Karen is now suffering the effects of 15-20 knots of winds shear, and has stopped intensifying. The latest satellite loops show a large and expanding cloud pattern with good outflow to the north, but no eye. The wind shear affecting Karen is expected to stay at 15-20 knots the next four days, and Karen will probably not change much in strength during that period. The long range outlook for Karen remains unchanged. The models are all fairly unified in taking Karen to a latitude north of the Lesser Antilles Islands. However, the trough of low pressure expected to steer Karen to the northwest is unlikely to be strong enough to recurve Karen out to sea. A new ridge of high pressure may build in, forcing Karen westwards towards the U.S., just north of the Lesser Antilles Islands. This scenario, favored by the UKMET model, would put Karen in a position to threaten the U.S. East Coast late next week. The GFS model does not build in such a strong ridge, and instead forecasts that Karen will stall for 2-4 days a few hundred miles north of the Lesser Antilles Islands, and eventually recurve out to sea when the next strong trough of low pressure comes along. This scenario would put Bermuda at risk from Karen. It is too early to speculate which of these scenarios is more likely, and how much of a risk Karen may present to Bermuda or the U.S. East Coast.
Watch this!

Tropical Depression 13 remains nearly stationary in the far southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Wind shear is about 10 knots over the disturbance, and is expected to remain 10 knots or below for the next three days. This should allow Tropical Depression 13 to develop into a strong tropical storm--possibly a Category 1 hurricane--before it makes landfall along the Mexican coast 2-3 days from now. Steering currents are weak in the southwest Gulf of Mexico, and the storm will move slowly and erratically. This storm is primarily a threat to Mexico, due to a very strong ridge of high pressure that will prevent the storm from turning northwards.

surface low pressure area (98L) formed near Key West this morning, and has moved northeast to a position off the SW coast of Florida south of Naples. The rotation of the low is clearly evident on long range radar out of Miami. However, there are no organized spiral bands, and winds measured throughout South Florida this afternoon have been 12 mph or less.

The disturbance is lifting northeastward in response to a strong trough of low pressure swinging off the U.S. East Coast. On Thursday, when 98L will be over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream approaching North Carolina, the system has the potential to organize into a tropical depression, as wind shear is expected to fall to 10 knots. The GFDL develops 98L very rapidly, and predicts it will approach Category 1 hurricane status as it passes about 200 miles east of Cape Hatteras on Friday night. This is too aggressive a forecast, and I prefer the HWRF forecast, which forecasts top winds of 35-40 mph by Friday night. A very strong band of wind shear associated with the jet stream will affecting 98L by Friday night, and could rapidly destroy the storm. 98L or its remnants may then move rapidly northeastward past Cape Cod, Massachusetts, or may stall off the coast of North Carolina and wander erratically for several days. The models are split on this

Ozzieland is still quiet

[Festngator]

Lorenzo is bringing rain to the central east coast of Mexico where Dean hit. It may head north so it should be watched esrecially if it gets over water again.

The system by S Fla was suppose to go up Fla's coast, wrong, it has been blown out towards the bahamas.

Karen is under lots of wind shear, still a couple days to see if she turns north or is a threat.

The tropical wave in front of her hit the Hati/DR mountains so it is being totn up. Still needs to be watched down the road.

No tropical problems for Ozzie.

[PaulC]

No tropical problems for Ozzie.

isn't it off season for the Cyclones that would affect Ozzie??......

[Festngator]

Heavy thunderstorms are on the increase over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, several hundred miles west of Key West, in association with an upper-level low pressure system that is now generating an area of low pressure at the surface.A surface area of low pressure was over the western Bahamas last night, several hundred miles east of the Gulf of Mexico upper level low. This Bahamas surface low was the initial suspect area we were watching (labeled "Invest 90L" by NHC). This surface low moved westward overnight, and is now underneath the upper low. This is a situation very much like we saw with Tropical Depression Ten last month, which also formed from an upper level low over the Gulf of Mexico. Like TD 10, 90L will probably start off as a subtropical depression. There will be a warm core to the storm at the surface, but the upper low has a cold core aloft. This will make the storm subtropical in nature--a system has to have a warm core all the way from the surface to the upper atmosphere to be truly tropical. 90L will gradually warm up its entire core and become tropical, but this will probably take two days. It took two days for TD 10 to become fully tropical, and it ran out of time to intensify when it moved ashore into the Florida Panhandle as a tropical depression.
With a landfall expected Thursday or Friday in Louisiana or Texas, this does not give 90L much time to strengthen. There is plenty of warm water in the Gulf of Mexico to aid intensification, but hampering intensification will be dry, continental air from North America that is being pulled southward over the Gulf of Mexico by the counter-clockwise circulation around the upper low.

[Festngator]

90L heading to La/Tx will not develope into a hurric@ne.

New Invest 92L of bahamas needs to be watched as it crosses Florida or Florida straits.
http://i167.photobucket.com/albums/u133/Festngator/Invest92.gif


Disturbance 91L between Africa and the Lesser Antilles
A tropical wave (91L) near 9N, 41W, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, has gotten better organized this morning. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a wind shift associated with the wave, but no closed circulation. Satellite loops show a modest area of heavy thunderstorm activity that is not well-organized. The disturbance is headed west at 10-15 mph, and is expected to take a more west-northwesterly track Thursday.

Wind shear is about 10 knots over the wave, and is forecast to remain below 15 knots until Thursday night. This may allow for some slow development. However, beginning Thursday night, wind shear is expect to increase and remain 20-30 knots through Sunday. This should prevent further development.

[Festngator]

Heavy Weather in NOLA this morning and rest of today as the system approaches the coast http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=LIX&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&type=N0R&zoommode=pan&map.x=400&map.y=240&centerx=388&centery=163&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&delay=15&scale=0.75&noclutter=0&showstorms=31&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0

[Festngator]

First up, 90L...90L is moving NW just south of
Louisiana. In the last few frames of satellite
imagery, convection can be seen firing near the center
of circulation. If this convection remains
persistent, 90L could strengthen slightly before
landfall. I expect 90L to make landfall later this
afternoon near the TX/LA border. Will not rule out
the possibility of sustained winds of 30-35 mph in a
small area near landfall, possibly a little higher if
it is fortunate enough to strengthen slightly.

92L...THE PROBLEM CHILD...after analyzing multiple
vortices's yesterday and yesterday evening, there has
been a mid to upper low that has formed somewhat SE of
the original designated center
Here's where the problem
lies...another vortex and apparent
surface circulation IS noted on visible satellite
imagery as well as long range Doppler Radar from
Miami. This vortex
is moving to the WSW as planned by the computer
models. However it is unknown if the NHC is going to
designate this the LLC of 92L, or if they are going
with the center near 23N;68W. If they go with the
vortex in the Fla. straits, then I buy the model
guidance at this time. If this can get some
convection going, it could be the one that develops,
as it is in a more favorable area upper level wind
wise. Should the area near 23N;68W become the
dominate center, then things change. This center does
appear to be trying to work down to the surface. I
see that area moving slowly west right now, or maybe
just S of west. This particular area is undergoing
about 25 knots of wind shear. But as it moves west,
and if it moves quick enough, it would be able to take
advantage of the lighter winds near the center of the
anticyclone at the 200 MB level centered near the
Yucatan channel. I believe the models would have to
change forecast track on it, as looking at the
forecasted steering maps, I don't see what would keep
pushing this WSW to SW. I feel a more Westward track
could be in order, and then maybe a more northward
component after that. Again, this is all going to
depend on center location and possible development.
Only one model really develops this, which is the MM5,
and takes it into Mexico as a possible tropical storm.
I do believe if it can get its act together, we
should see some slow development. Models are in
agreement of relaxing shear even more over the next
24-36 hours, with mostly favorable conditions lying
ahead of this system after that. The GFS does however
maintain a shear zone to the north, and it is unknown
right now if that would be close enough to inhibit
development. I would continue to monitor this system
closely for further development.
Another note of interest...the ECMWF starts to develop
something in the BOC ( Bay Of Campeche) on the 14th, and starts to move
it N to NNE on the 15th. Will keep an eye out on
this, as the pattern is such that it may not be out of
the question.

[Festngator]

http://i167.photobucket.com/albums/u133/Festngator/areas.gif

[Festngator]

Tropical depression likely by Tuesday in Western Caribbean


Posted by: JeffMasters, 8:45 PM GMT on October 08, 2007

A vigorous surface circulation has developed in association with a broad area of low pressure over the Western Caribbean (94L). A pass from the European ASCAT satellite at 11:02 am EDT showed that the surface circulation had gotten much less elongated, compared to this morning's QuikSCAT pass. Top winds were only about 10 mph in the 11 am ASCAT pass, but have no doubt increased since then. Satellite loops show a very large surface circulation covering the entire Western Caribbean, with a concentrated area of thunderstorms forming near the center of circulation. Surface pressures remain very low over the entire Western Caribbean. Wind shear is less than 10 knots, and is expected to remain less than 10 knots through Thursday. It is likely that this system will form into a tropical depression on Tuesday, despite the very large amount of atmosphere it is trying to spin up.

Steering currents are weak in the Western Caribbean, but most of the models show a slow motion to the west or northwest that will take 94L over Belize or Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Thursday. It is unlikely 94L will have time to become a hurricane before it moves over the Yucatan, and the main threat from the system will be heavy rain. These rains may cause significant flooding problems in Belize and Mexico's Yucatan. Heavy rains may also affect northeast Guatemala, but should not cause significant flooding.

There is a strong trough of low pressure forecast to swing across the U.S. this week, which could turn 94L northwards into Western Cuba, the Florida Keys, or Southwest Florida. However, this is unlikely, since none of the reliable computer models are forecasting such a turn.

It is likely that 94L will eventually emerge into the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean after spending a few days over the Yucatan. When it does so, it will probably be intact enough to re-strengthen, since it is such a large system. Its long-term fate it highly uncertain, as the steering currents are weak and the storm's intensity will be controlled by interaction with land.