Dean.

[marignygreg]

I'm watching this one. Let us hope this thread is short lived.

[Festngator]

Tropical Storm Dean is strengthening as it continues westwards towards the Lesser Antilles Islands. Wind shear has fallen to 10 knots this morning, which has allowed the storm to consolidate its heavy thunderstorm activity into a symmetrical pattern around the center. Estimates of intensity from both traditional satellite images and microwave images have shown a steady intensification this morning, and some well-formed spiral bands are now visible on satellite loops. The major impediment to intensification is the large amount of dry air to the storm's north, and this will continue to be a problem for it until it reaches a moister environment near the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Track forecast
None of the computer models are forecasting that Dean will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. The trough of low pressure that will pass north of the islands on Saturday is now expected to be a bit weaker than earlier forecast, which should allow Dean to pass into the Caribbean on a west to west-northwest track. The trough is no longer forecast to spawn an upper-level low pressure system, which means that the danger to the U.S. East Coast north of the Carolinas is minimal. A ridge of high pressure is expected to build in after the first trough passes on Saturday, which should keep Dean on a west to west-northwest path into the middle of next week. The southernmost model solutions (GFDL, Canadian) take Dean into Honduras early next week. The more northerly solutions of the GFS and HWRF take Dean over Jamaica, then into the Gulf of Mexico. No models call for a threat to the east coast of Florida at present, but that could change once we see how strong Saturday's trough of low pressure really will be. The NOAA jet is scheduled to make its first flight Thursday night, and by Friday morning we should have a good set of model runs that will give us a more reliable idea of Dean's likely track. At present, it appears that Dean's main threat to the U.S. will be to the Gulf of Mexico coast.

Intensity forecast
With low shear and warm water ahead of it, Dean's intensification over the next few days will only be limited by the dry air to the north. I expect that this dry air will impede Dean enough so that the storm passes through the Lesser Antilles as a Category 1 hurricane. After that, the environment moistens, shear stays low, and the heat content of the ocean greatly increases. The 06Z run of new HWRF model is again very aggressive intensifying Dean after it crosses into the Caribbean, bringing the storm to 928 mb (Category 4) on Monday morning near Jamaica. The GFDL model is not nearly as aggressive, putting Dean at 964 mb (Category 2) Monday morning.

[ozzie]

Thanks for keeping us updated. Stay safe everyone.

[Blitzzzzz]

5 day forecast map from weather underground
http://tinyurl.com/2rf7c7
Whole bunch of maps at the top of the page, scroll down for the full size stormtrack prediction.

Cat 4 in the Gulf by Monday evening!
Oh, Dear!:(

[Festngator]

Check the GFDL Model run-- If this storm slows its forward speed it will be in warm moist conditions and will be a strong storm.

[Corona]

oh god....