Disturbing Article - NYT

[festivalgirl]

New Orleans Residents Arming Themselves

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By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Published: March 23, 2007

Filed at 6:29 p.m. ET

NEW ORLEANS (AP) -- Sixty-four-year-old Vivian Westerman rode out Hurricane Katrina in her 19th-century house. So terrible was the experience that she wanted two things before the 2006 season arrived: a backup power source and a gun.

''I got a 6,000-watt generator and the cutest little Smith & Wesson, snub-nose .38 you ever saw,'' she boasted. ''I've never been more confident.''

People across New Orleans are arming themselves -- not only against the possibility of another storm bringing anarchy, but against the violence that has engulfed the metropolitan area in the 19 months since Katrina, making New Orleans the nation's murder capital.

The number of permits issued to carry concealed weapons is running twice as high as it was before Katrina -- this, in a city with only about half its pre-storm population of around 450,000. Attendance at firearms classes and hours logged at shooting ranges also are up, according to the gun industry.

Gun dealers who saw sales shoot up during the chaotic few months after Katrina say that sales are still brisk, and that the customers are a cross-section of the population -- doctors, lawyers, bankers, artists, laborers, stay-at-home moms.

''People are in fear of their lives. They're looking for ways to feel safe again,'' said Mike Roniger, manager of Gretna Gunworks in Jefferson Parish.

Citizens, the tourism industry, police and politicians officials have been alarmed by the wave of killings in New Orleans, with 162 in 2006 and 37 so far this year. A Tulane University study put the city's 2006 homicide rate at 96 slayings per 100,000 people, the highest in the nation.

National Guardsmen and state police are patrolling the streets of New Orleans. In neighboring Jefferson Parish, which posted a record 66 homicides in 2006, the sheriff sent armored vehicles to protect high-crime neighborhoods.

In New Orleans, police have accused the district attorney of failing to prosecute many suspects. Prosecutors have accused the police of not bringing them solid cases.

Some people are losing faith in the system to protect them.

Earnest Johnson, a 37-year-old chef who lives in Kenner, bought his first gun recently and visits a shooting range regularly. ''Things are way worse than they used to be,'' he said. ''You have to do something to protect yourself.''

Kevin Cato, a 41-year-old contractor, bought a .45-caliber handgun for protection when he is working in some of the city's still-deserted areas. ''But it's not much safer at home,'' Cato said. ''The police chased a guy through my yard one time with their guns out.''

In New Orleans, the number of concealed-carry permits issued jumped from 432 in 2003-04 to 832 in 2005-06. In Jefferson Parish, 522 permits were issued in 2003-04, and 1,362 in 2005-06.

Mike Mayer, owner of Jefferson Indoor Range and Gun Outlet in suburban Metairie, said that despite the dropoff in population, sales are up about 38 percent overall since Katrina.

Just how many guns are out there is anybody's guess. Gun buyers in Louisiana are not required to register their weapon or obtain a concealed-carry permit if they keep the gun in their house or car.

In a measure of how dangerous New Orleans is becoming, guns are finding their way into criminal hands at an alarming rate. The federal Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives' ''time-to-crime'' analysis of the interval between the legal sale of a gun and the time it is seized in a crime investigation is five years on average around the nation, said ATF spokesman Austin Banks. In New Orleans, time-to-crime is six months, he said.

This sometimes happens because of ''straw purchases,'' in which a buyer obtains a gun for someone not legally eligible to purchase one. Many guns also are stolen from homes and cars.

While many are buying guns for protection, only two defensive killings of criminals by civilians took place in New Orleans in 2006, according to police. No charges were filed against the shooters.

Westerman, an artist who lives in the city's Algiers neighborhood, is prepared to use deadly force.

''I'm a marksman now. I know what I'm doing,'' she said. ''There are a lot of us. The girl next door is a crack shot.''

[Rossvegas]

Yeah, this is not good....

[mightyradgumbo]

New Orleans Residents Arming Themselves

''I got a 6,000-watt generator and the cutest little Smith & Wesson, snub-nose .38 you ever saw,'' she boasted. ''I've never been more confident.''

Westerman, an artist who lives in the city's Algiers neighborhood, is prepared to use deadly force.

''I'm a marksman now. I know what I'm doing,'' she said. ''There are a lot of us. The girl next door is a crack shot.''

Mom? Is that you?

Cutest little Smith and Wesson Funny yet disturbing that citizens have to resort to arming themselves

[marignygreg]

To quote Chris Rose in todays column, " the New York Times and other lofty media outlets which, try as they will to present an air of authority on matters of the post Katrina landscape , still don't know squat about what New Orleans is really all about". N'uff said.

[Zydekitten]

To quote Chris Rose in todays column, " the New York Times and other lofty media outlets which, try as they will to present an air of authority on matters of the post Katrina landscape , still don't know squat about what New Orleans is really all about". N'uff said.
Thank you, Greg for injecting some reality in the media masturbation (my, how they love to walk the parapet) - I was hoping one of our NOLA local Bored members would chime in on this.

[mightyradgumbo]

Thank you, Greg for injecting some reality in the media masturbation (my, how they love to walk the parapet) - I was hoping one of our NOLA local Bored members would chime in on this.

YYr, Zkitty..but unfortunately not everyone reads the T-P. So it is really boils down to is it an issue or a non-issue. I mean, half the people in the city of Boston prolly have weapons permits and just about none of them ever use them. The ones using handguns here don't go out and get permits.

[Orleansnj]

Thank you, Greg for injecting some reality in the media masturbation (my, how they love to walk the parapet) - I was hoping one of our NOLA local Bored members would chime in on this.

Double quote.......agreed.

I know that everyone is worried about crime - but let's get some perspective - crime makes the paper in new orleans and it's a FRACTION of what occurs here in New Jersey/New York. Newark is a disaster - and you don't hear nearly as much about what is happening there as you do in New Orleans - and let me assure you - it is WAY more violent in Newark.

The media pisses me off on occasion - and this is one of those times. I'd like someone from the NYTimes who writes a story on New Orleans to actually live there for more than a minute.:mad:

http://i163.photobucket.com/albums/t281/orleansnj/mad0245.gif

http://i163.photobucket.com/albums/t281/orleansnj/swear11.gif

[jolie]

To quote Chris Rose in todays column, " the New York Times and other lofty media outlets which, try as they will to present an air of authority on matters of the post Katrina landscape , still don't know squat about what New Orleans is really all about". N'uff said.

Amen....this is a non-issue

[Jaypee]

Of course newspapers and many popular media outlets love to jump on a bad news story. This kind of press won't keep any of us away from New Orleans...but that said...

I may have posted this a month ago, (can't recall) but I was in NOLA for an overnight, and got together with a friend who recently relocated back to the city from his post-K haven in Florida. Although he is not a native New Orleanian, he has lived there for 20 years and said he cannot imagine living anywhere else.

But he is anxious and depressed about the crime situation. He lives on Magazine Street and works near Audubon Park. He always felt relatively safe in those areas but now he has cut his social life way down in favor in staying inside after dark, as the crime wave has spilled into his 'hood.

He won't give up on the city, but he's afraid that there will be an exodus of residents who have stuck it out but are at their wit's end, especially those with kids.

Of course, I don't know what to tell him. All I can do is listen and frankly, worry about him, emotionally and physically. What's an out-of-state friend to do??

[Zydekitten]

To give the NYT its due . . . the story was filed by the Associated Press, not them. This was actually the latest piece in the Times (which I also had posted in the Bar before moving it to this thread, so please forgive the redundancy if you've already seen it there):

March 22, 2007
News Analysis

Louisiana Opening Offers Chance to Recast a Shaky Relationship With Washington

By ADAM NOSSITER (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/n/adam_nossiter/index.html?inline=nyt-per)

NEW ORLEANS, March 21 — Since Hurricane Katrina, Louisiana (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/national/usstatesterritoriesandpossessions/louisiana/index.html?inline=nyt-geo) has been a needy ward of Washington, though rarely a cooperative or cheerful one.

With Gov. Kathleen Babineaux Blanco’s political exit this week, the dysfunctional relationship, so vital to the battered state but so marginal to the capital, could shift sharply.

Ms. Blanco, her standing shredded by post-Katrina failures, announced Tuesday that she would not run for re-election, becoming the highest-profile victim to date of the storm’s political fallout. Enter — possibly — John B. Breaux (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/b/john_b_breaux/index.html?inline=nyt-per), the former senator whom many Democrats all over the state are suggesting as the governor’s possible successor.

Mr. Breaux has been coy about his intentions in this fall’s race. It is clear, though, that his main asset in a possible race would be a background precisely the opposite of the incumbent’s: a lifetime of experience in the ways of Washington, as well as a hand permanently extended across the party aisle.

His dual identity as a creature both of Washington and of the Louisiana swamps could appeal to voters weary of the state’s wars with Washington, offering a possible transformation in the way a hitherto skeptical Congress and federal bureaucracy have viewed this stepchild state.

Louisiana, the balky aid recipient, is like some far-flung subtropical possession the government cannot quite ignore. It is still hugely dependent on Washington for housing reconstruction money, infrastructure replacement and protection from storms and criminals. Rancor and partisan speech-making, as practiced by Ms. Blanco, Mayor C. Ray Nagin of New Orleans and other officials, have so far not served it especially well.

Few doubt that Mr. Breaux, a Cajun deal maker of legendary smoothness, would bring an entirely different approach. Republicans (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/r/republican_party/index.html?inline=nyt-org) have begun attacking him even before any announcement of his candidacy, demonstrating its potential potency.

“What Breaux brings is ‘cred,’ ” said the veteran Louisiana pollster and political consultant Elliott Stonecipher. Mr. Breaux “brings, from the outside view, all the things Louisiana doesn’t have,” he added.

On Wednesday, Mr. Breaux, now a lobbyist with the top Washington firm Patton Boggs, released a statement saying merely that he was “seriously evaluating what is best for Louisiana, and determining whether I can be helpful for the state as a candidate for governor.” He added that he would make a decision “in the near future.”

The leading Republican, Representative Bobby Jindal, is also well placed in Washington, having worked as an assistant secretary in the Department of Health and Human Services (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/h/health_and_human_services_department/index.html?inline=nyt-org) under President Bush and led a bipartisan commission seeking changes for Medicare.

But Mr. Breaux has been in Washington since before Mr. Jindal was born, starting in 1968 as an aide to the man he later replaced in the House, the future governor (and later convicted felon) Edwin W. Edwards, a fellow native of the Cajun region of Louisiana.

Mr. Breaux served 14 years in the House and then 18 in the Senate, along the way earning a reputation as the Democrat perhaps most willing to compromise with Republicans on taxes, social spending, health care and other contentious issues, to the sometimes ill-suppressed irritation of fellow party members. Mr. Breaux always said he was more interested in passing legislation than in scoring political points.

He played tennis with the previous President Bush, was courted as a potential energy secretary by the current president, and once joked, after a trade-off with the administration early in the Reagan era, that though his vote was not for sale “it is available for rent.”

It is unlikely that, were Mr. Breaux stuck in the sort of permanent negotiations with Washington that is now the lot of Louisiana officials, he would resort to the blustering warfare that Ms. Blanco has sometimes practiced.

Just last month, the governor blasted Washington Republicans as having “discriminated” against “our people.” The remarks drew a quick, sharp retort from Mr. Bush’s emissary to the region, Donald E. Powell, said to have been deeply angered.

In the past week, federal officials threw Ms. Blanco’s entourage into a panic when they said Louisiana was breaking rules by doling out housing aid money for the Road Home program in small allotments instead of giving homeowners the option of getting lump sums.

The program has been widely criticized as being too slow in making grants to desperate homeowners. After hurried negotiations in Washington, state officials agreed this week to change the rules, allowing homeowners without mortgages to get lump-sum payments of up to $150,000. The state’s lack of savvy in dealing with Washington was pointed up again.

Yet the Washington savvy with which Mr. Breaux is widely credited carries its own pitfalls here, too, in a peculiar election year in which beleaguered local voters are more fed up, and more ready for change, than perhaps at any time since the desperate Huey Long years of the Great Depression. Mr. Breaux represents skill, but he also symbolizes the political establishment.

“In a year of reform, John Breaux is a clear personification of Louisiana’s history, not its future,” said Mr. Stonecipher, the consultant.

And in a year when voters here may be looking for something “radical,” said another veteran Louisiana political consultant, Raymond D. Strother, “I don’t know that the relationship with Washington is as important as offering hope.”

While saying that Mr. Breaux is a “loved and popular figure in Louisiana,” Mr. Strother added that he “will represent the status quo unless he can find a way to become an agent of change.”

[ScoopJohnD]

Double quote.......agreed.

I know that everyone is worried about crime - but let's get some perspective - crime makes the paper in new orleans and it's a FRACTION of what occurs here in New Jersey/New York. Newark is a disaster - and you don't hear nearly as much about what is happening there as you do in New Orleans - and let me assure you - it is WAY more violent in Newark.

The media pisses me off on occasion - and this is one of those times. I'd like someone from the NYTimes who writes a story on New Orleans to actually live there for more than a minute.:mad:

http://i163.photobucket.com/albums/t281/orleansnj/mad0245.gif

http://i163.photobucket.com/albums/t281/orleansnj/swear11.gif

I think the guy who wrote this lives there.......

Study: Murder rate is even higher
Figures make N.O. the deadliest city
Monday, March 12, 2007
By Brendan McCarthy - nola.com

A new study by a Tulane University professor puts New Orleans' murder rate as the highest in the country.

The study estimates the city's 2006 murder rate at 96 per every 100,000 people.

Determining the exact per capita murder rate, the most popular measuring stick for overall violent crime, has largely been up for debate, falling victim to slippery estimates of the city's post-Katrina population.

The new study, by demographer Mark VanLandingham, aims to fix the main flaw in previous per capita murder estimates for 2006: It takes into account the large change in New Orleans' population during the year, with far fewer people in the city at the beginning of 2006 than at the end. That change raises the murder rate substantially.

For instance, using the highest static population estimate VanLandingham found in his research, 201,000, would produce a murder rate of about 80 per 100,000 people, still significantly lower than the new study's conclusion. Using the figure New Orleans Police Superintendent Warren Riley has offered -- 275,000, based on an estimate rather than research -- the murder rate would fall to just 58 per 100,000 people.

VanLandingham, a professor in the international health and development department of Tulane's School of Public Health, sought to bring hard fact to a debate between the Police Department and critics who say the it has downplayed the crime problem.

"It's part of this big policy debate: How bad is the murder rate?" VanLandingham said. "It was a question that could be answered. And I wanted to do it right, come up with a correct estimate."

The study also shows a steadily increasing murder rate since 2004. The murder rate for 2004 was 57 per every 100,000 people. In 2005, the year Katrina hit, the rate was 65 per every 100,000 people, according to VanLandingham's study.

According to his study, the 2006 murder rate was 68 percent higher than in 2004.

'Murder city'

The 2006 murder rates of other cities were exponentially lower than New Orleans' rate. Houston had a rate of about 20 per 100,000 residents, according to statistics for the first half of 2006, the most recent released by the FBI. Detroit had a rate of 41; Baltimore, 42; St. Louis, 32; Philadelphia, 25; and Newark, N.J., 36.

In analyzing crime, demographers and crime analysts say murder rates best reflect overall trends because killings are almost always reported.
New Orleans Police Department spokesman Sgt. Joe Narcisse said police officials look at the murder rate but question whether any true rate can be established. "The change in our population makes it hard to quantify with any degree of certainty," he said.

Narcisse added that holding the title of the country's most murderous city damages New Orleans' reputation. "It hurts the city, and it hurts us all, when we look at murder rates with those per capita numbers," he said.

The FBI's annual crime statistics -- the standard measure for a city's totals for murder and other major crimes -- use the midyear population estimate provided by the city, which doesn't account for New Orleans' radical shift in population in 2006.

In his study, VanLandingham used a group of the most widely accepted population estimates to estimate a month-by-month breakdown of the number of people in the city.

Other demographers and criminologists called the research the most accurate -- and frightening -- estimate of the murder rate to date.

"What the police have done is use year-end stats and year-end population to push the rate down," said Peter Scharf, a criminologist at the University of New Orleans. "This study makes the rate more precise."

Scharf said New Orleans' rate far exceeds that of other large cities. However, he sees a more worrisome sign in the study. "Now matter how your parse it, we are murder city, murder capital," he said. "But forget it, let's move on. The second issue is that we have an ascending murder rate. It's going up. That's more worrisome."

Police methodology

Police officials have shied away from discussing the 2006 murder rate, opting instead to talk about the year-end total of 162, a total that was lower than years past. In those years, however, the city had a population at least double the current estimates.

At a news conference on New Year's Day, Riley heralded the city's 2006 murder total as the lowest in 30 years.

He called the population estimates way too low and said they inflated the crime rate, and also spoke of staff shortages and hardships faced by the department and the city. He said the tally of 161 murders, later bumped to 162, was substantially lower than in the years before Katrina and was the lowest in decades.

He was optimistic. He was also incorrect. In 1999, the Police Department tallied 159 murders, according to the department's Web site and media reports published at the time. That number came at a time when New Orleans' population was around 485,000, according to census figures.

Narcisse called Riley's inaccurate declaration a "slip of the tongue."

"When the superintendent made that statement, perhaps he was generalizing a bit," Narcisse said. "It is a low number, and it is one of the lowest numbers in this time period. It's just not the lowest."

Population estimates vary

Gregory Stone, a lead researcher in one well-known population study and a manager of health demographics at the Louisiana Public Health Institute, said officials are citing year-end numbers that do not properly reflect the city's population. "Taking a year-end number in a city that has been repopulating gives a way too generous, way too low rate," Stone said.

The New Orleans Emergency Operations Center conducted three separate estimates, with the most recent theorizing that about 181,000 people resided in New Orleans at the end of January 2006, Stone said.

Other estimates have varied greatly. The U.S. Census Bureau's population estimate for Jan. 1, 2006, was 158,000. The Louisiana Public Health Institute estimated that the city boasted a population of about 201,000 between June and October.

Several demographers interviewed said the number is likely lower.
Conservative estimates put the population under 200,000.

Riley has previously said migrant workers living and working in the city are not being counted in such estimates. He has cautioned that the city could get an "awful reputation" based on miscalculations in population.

Narayan Sastry, a demographer with the Rand Corp., which has conducted a series of population studies, agreed with VanLandingham's methodology.

"That's really the only correct way to do it," Sastry said, adding that demographers may differ on population estimates. "Generally, if you have a stable population, it wouldn't matter. But in this case, it's very different."
. . . . . . .
Brendan McCarthy can be reached at bmccarthy@timespicayune.com or (504) 826-3301.

[ScoopJohnD]

I also think the 5000 people that marched on City Hall 2 months ago live there as well.

[Papins]

To quote Chris Rose in todays column, " the New York Times and other lofty media outlets which, try as they will to present an air of authority on matters of the post Katrina landscape , still don't know squat about what New Orleans is really all about". N'uff said. What can ya say after that? The New York Times. Proof positive you shouldn't believe everything you read.

[jolie]

Theres no doubt post-katrina crime is a HUGE factor here.

But the initial article was mainly about an increase in gun permits...The people with permits aren't doing the killing.

I'd like to say we may have seen a small dip in murders since that march, but I got no stats on that...just read about it less...hopfully it's a continued trend

[bywterbro]

ny times has a small office of reporters in new orleans these days...
the article that scoopjohn extracted is pretty accurate...
its not the same new orleans crime wise as last years jazz fest...
one of the vipers was held up walking out of the spotted cat a few months
ago.....mimis in the marigny had a bad holdup where everyone in the
bar was down on the floor.....bars uptown have been held up..
im not trying to freak anyone out.....just be careful.....

[marignygreg]

I'm not saying New Orleans is not a dangerous city, I'm just tired of the national press writing all this negative crap about my beloved N'awlins. They could have come to town 10 years ago and wrote the same story. When I was looking at property 12 years ago in the Marigny Triangle, tourists did not cross Esplanade. Now it is a "hip" neighborhood that has become an extension of the Quarter. Crime is worse now compared to pre-K, but still better than the mid 90's. Conclusion....?...draw your own.

[marignygreg]

For the record, I am only a part time Marigny-ite. I am here 2-3 months of the year physically. Full time in my heart and soul.

[ScoopJohnD]

Theres no doubt post-katrina crime is a HUGE factor here.

But the initial article was mainly about an increase in gun permits...The people with permits aren't doing the killing.

And the article never said they were. It said that rise in gun permits being issued is because regular citizens are arming themselves in response to the rising crime rate.

[ScoopJohnD]

And I also might note that the Chris Rose quote was taken from an article on the Mardi Gras Indians and how the media report on that and other traditions and cultures unique to New Orleans. Chris Rose has written too many columns to count on how bad the crime problem is in New Orleans........I think he lives there too if I'm not mistaken.

[Zydekitten]

So, cher Scoopy - what's your point?? Don't go to NOLA? Don't move there? Or if you, get a gun??

I'm not sure what you're trying to accomplish with this thread . . . and I usually see pretty eye-to-eye with you, mijo.

I just ask as I'm having trouble understanding this one. :o

[Michelino]

Pigeonholing the message behind this article just because it appeared in the New York Times is a naive response, whether by Chris Rose or anyone else. There is currently a perception that New Orleans may no longer be a safe place to visit among many people who have never been there. New Orleans is alleged to have the highest murder rate in the country, almost double any other city. And it was bad enough before Katrina (http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0004902.html) If the statistics are accurate, then we all should be concerned. If not, then the real truth should be exposed.

But adding a few hundred thousand guns into a a volatile situation will neither improve safety or reduce crime. In fact, as the article mentions, the net effect will just be to increase the number of guns available to criminals.

[Zydekitten]

Well, getting overly stirred up about being in/near places with high per capita murder rates means folks are getting stirred up by statistics and ask any statistician - you can bend stats any way you want, to support any angle you want.

I grew up in Palo Alto, about a mile or so from the highest per capita murder captial at that time in the U.S., East Palo Alto and it had very small impact where I lived, went to school and hung out . . . and this was before Palo Alto was the Beverly Hills of Silicon Valley, it was just a smallish college town.

That's not to say folks shouldn't be concerned about the crime in NOLA, they should - particularly the ones who live there - but getting people all worked up and obtaining guns certainly won't help things.

[ScoopJohnD]

(I forgot to quote, so this is for your question Kitty)

No the point is you can't have it both ways. When the march happened everybody wanted the national media to cover it. The march was about how bad the crime problem was and that it had to be addressed. Now it's the national media blow everything out of proportion and while crime is a problem it's not as bad as everyone thinks. I submit it's still a big problem, a HUGE f*&(kin problem and quite frankly the only time the morons in City Hall do anything is when the national media write about it. So don't bitch about the media and bitch about the REAL problem. The Mayor, the Police Chief, and the DA.

In about 3 weeks is the time they all PROMISED that the new crime lab would be up and running. And if it doesn't happen, are you gonna bitch when the media reports it? In June I believe, (I could be wrong maybe a little later) the National Guard deployment is supposed to end. Betcha they're gonna say they're still needed. But why? It's not that bad, it's that pesky media overblowing everything. So in a nutshell, stop blaming the messenger.

[Zydekitten]

Thanks, Scoopy - well stated as always and a good, valid point. I think what I and Onj were responding to was the sensational tone of the AP "everybody in New Orleans has a gun!!!!" story - which doesn't accomplish anything terribly constructive towards examing the status of the crime issues in NOLA.

It just sells papers, gets ratings and $$ for their advertisers. I really have been enjoying the more in-depth and serious focus that the NYT has been giving to New Orleans - I think that type of media coverage is much more helpful.

Here's your free dink, cher :D:

http://i117.photobucket.com/albums/o67/Zydekitten/914014A-Shot-and-Beer-Posters.jpg

[ScoopJohnD]

Thanks, Scoopy - well stated as always and a good, valid point. I think what I and Onj were responding to was the sensational tone of the AP "everybody in New Orleans has a gun!!!!" story - which doesn't accomplish anything terribly constructive towards examing the status of the crime issues in NOLA.

It just sells papers, gets ratings and $$ for their advertisers. I really have been enjoying the more in-depth and serious focus that the NYT has been giving to New Orleans - I think that type of media coverage is much more helpful.

Here's your free dink, cher :D:

And as I wrote, the article basically was pointing out that more citizens feel the need to protect themselves BECAUSE of the rising crime rate and the lack of progress being made by the Three Stooges in City Hall. The 70 year old grandmother was a bit much however.

Thanks for the dink!

[Zydekitten]

You got it, baby - thanks for caring! :)

[Michelino]

you can bend stats any way you want, to support any angle you want..

Not really, this suggests that there is no truth, only opinion and propaganda. And New Orleans problems cannot be minimized by mere anecdote. Most people, in fact, do not end up as murder victims. In fact, there was a well publicized murder 500 feet from my own front door last summer, but regardless of my feelings about that incident, it really doesn't affect the situation in New Orleans.

Despite Reagan's silly quote, (Facts are stupid things) facts do exist. Just as with the wetlands, (a cause that has been similarly embraced by musicians native to the region) New Orleans problems with crime need to be discussed, understood and addressed.

[Zydekitten]

Michelino bello - I agree with most of your post. The basic fact is that the crime in NOLA is a true concern and must be addressed better than it has been.

However, regarding stats - sure, you can bs with them - in fact there's even a well-known book (in stats circles) on how to do so:

http://www.amazon.com/How-Lie-Statistics-Darrell-Huff/dp/0393310728

I used to work with a great statistician and that is one thing he was a real stickler for - using data appropriately and correctly, because it's so easy to tweak it to suit one's own agenda and spin.

Have a dink on me for caring so much also! :D

[stlbarb]

Michelino bello - I agree with most of your post. The basic fact is that the crime in NOLA is a true concern and must be addressed better than it has been.

However, regarding stats - sure, you can bs with them - in fact there's even a well-known book (in stats circles) on how to do so:

http://www.amazon.com/How-Lie-Statistics-Darrell-Huff/dp/0393310728

I used to work with a great statistician and that is one thing he was a real stickler for - using data appropriately and correctly, because it's so easy to tweak it to suit one's own agenda and spin.

Have a dink on me for caring so much also! :D

37% of all statistics are made up on the spot. ;)

[ScoopJohnD]

I agree stats can be twisted anyway you want. Which is why I always look at the source and try to decipher if there might be an agenda involved regardless of whether I agree with the point they're trying to get across or not. I had a hard time finding anything one way or the other with the one I posted with the Tulane professor.

[breambob]

Gonna throw my 2 cents in here. When I moved to NO in the mid 80s I owned two handguns, a sweet little .25 Beretta (which I carried everywhere, concealed, with a permit) and a S&W 9mm which I carried everywhere else.
I sold them soon. New Orleans was the first place I had ever lived that I thought I would actually have to use them. Scared me...

Still got the family Browning automatic shotgun though. 6 shots in a hurry, if I ever need it, but I don't take it down to Jazz Fest.

[ScoopJohnD]

YYR, Fest will be cool. But New Orleans still exists those other 350 or so days a year and people live there those days as you obviously know. Something's got to be done about the problem.

[Zydekitten]

Note to self: don't piss off Bream Bob

[breambob]

Note to self: don't piss off Bream Bob

Not possible, baybee. I practice the Barney Fife rules. A slight bluff and then haul ass at all confrontations. And I wear my best running shoes when I'm in NO :)
If you catch me then you can spank me. Hard. I deserve it.

[Blitzzzzz]

When I was looking at property 12 years ago in the Marigny Triangle, tourists did not cross Esplanade. Now it is a "hip" neighborhood that has become an extension of the Quarter. Crime is worse now compared to pre-K, but still better than the mid 90's. Conclusion....?...draw your own.

I've been going to Snug Harbor since I started hitting Jazz Fest in '94. Treme was not to be entered day or night, but Marigny wasn't that bad, even back then. Still, I know a bunch of hip, young people who are seriously considering giving up on New Orleans between the crime and the levees. They just don't see it getting any better anytime soon, and looking at it from the Long Haul, the idea of living through New Orleans descent into chaos just doesn't hold the thrill it did when they were 20. :cool:

[Michelino]

Michelino bello - I agree with most of your post. The basic fact is that the crime in NOLA is a true concern and must be addressed better than it has been.

However, regarding stats - sure, you can bs with them - in fact there's even a well-known book (in stats circles) on how to do so:

http://www.amazon.com/How-Lie-Statistics-Darrell-Huff/dp/0393310728

I used to work with a great statistician and that is one thing he was a real stickler for - using data appropriately and correctly, because it's so easy to tweak it to suit one's own agenda and spin.

Have a dink on me for caring so much also! :D

Having worked in statistical programming for 27 years and having also designed systems that use statistics in the modeling of chemical and biological properties, I'm also something of a stickler when it comes to interpretation of data, the use of statistics and the fundamental postulates that confine them. And while you are right, there is a lot of mumbo jumbo passed off as statistics, the way to cut through all the crap is be diligent and true to scientific methods in the search for truth. While "answers' cannot always be uncovered, falsehoods and the manipulative use of numbers are almost always easy to expose.

Enough of this weighty subject, the cocktail idea is good one. Thanks...and one back at ya.

[Zydekitten]

I've been going to Snug Harbor since I started hitting Jazz Fest in '94. Treme was not to be entered day or night, but Marigny wasn't that bad, even back then. Still, I know a bunch of hip, young people who are seriously considering giving up on New Orleans between the crime and the levees. They just don't see it getting any better anytime soon, and looking at it from the Long Haul, the idea of living through New Orleans descent into chaos just doesn't hold the thrill it did when they were 20. :cool:
Oh, Lordy - don't get me going on the "hipper than thou" trendsters . . . you know it's fine with me if places that I love S.F., New Orleans, Seattle aren't considered as "hip" as they used to be and leave - and it's supposedly happening to all of those former centers of hiposity.

As long as there's art, food and music in New Orleans - there will be people who participate in those and continue to live there, as well as in other big dangerous cities.

I'm seriously considering moving there and I'm 42 . . . :rolleyes:

[Zydekitten]

Having worked in statistical programming for 27 years and having also designed systems that use statistics in the modeling of chemical and biological properties, I'm also something of a stickler when it comes to interpretation of data, the use of statistics and the fundamental postulates that confine them. And while you are right, there is a lot of mumbo jumbo passed off as statistics, the way to cut through all the crap is be diligent and true to scientific methods in the search for truth. While "answers' cannot always be uncovered, falsehoods and the manipulative use of numbers are almost always easy to expose.

Enough of this weighty subject, the cocktail idea is good one. Thanks...and one back at ya.
Howard Johnson's right!!!

;)

[Zydekitten]

Not possible, baybee. I practice the Barney Fife rules. A slight bluff and then haul ass at all confrontations. And I wear my best running shoes when I'm in NO :)
If you catch me then you can spank me. Hard. I deserve it.
Really, you just carry one bullet in your shirt pocket?? :D

Well, not being a that type of person myself - I will be happy to whip you, but with an actual whip and not a pistol ;) :D

[bywterbro]

so Ms. Z whats keeping you from moving here?

[stlbarb]

Oh, Lordy - don't get me going on the "hipper than thou" trendsters . . . you know it's fine with me if places that I love S.F., New Orleans, Seattle aren't considered as "hip" as they used to be and leave - and it's supposedly happening to all of those former centers of hiposity.

As long as there's art, food and music in New Orleans - there will be people who participate in those and continue to live there, as well as in other big dangerous cities.

I'm seriously considering moving there and I'm 42 . . . :rolleyes:

many years ago i heard - so no telling how reliable - the average length of residency in the FQ was only about 6 months. that the lifestyle was hard and not cheap. so there was a constant turnover of bartenders, wait staff and otehr industry help.
maybe it just took the hipsters - with more resources - a little longer to burn out? are the statistics really any different than they ever were - just blaming it on something else?

who knows. sure wouldnt want facts & research to get in the way of trends & statistics. pople believe what they want to believe.

[bywterbro]

xcellent....nawlins needs all the good people it can get...
what type of work would you like to do?

[Zydekitten]

many years ago i heard - so no telling how reliable - the average length of residency in the FQ was only about 6 months. that the lifestyle was hard and not cheap. so there was a constant turnover of bartenders, wait staff and otehr industry help.
maybe it just took the hipsters - with more resources - a little longer to burn out? are the statistics really any different than they ever were - just blaming it on something else?

who knows. sure wouldnt want facts & research to get in the way of trends & statistics. pople believe what they want to believe.
Well, every year there's a survey about the "cool" cities in which to live - then a lot of "young, hip" people move there to follow the trend and when things get icky (e.g., San Francisco after the DotCom bubble burst), rather than stay and find new jobs or housing, a great many of them leave for the next cool place - it's almost like a migration.

That's been a big issue for S.F. - it used to be that people would move there when young, develop an attachment to the city and stay there and make a life there through all kinds of challenging events and issues . . . that's not really happening any more, folks just pick up and leave. My guess is that this phenomenon isn't only happening there, but in NOLA and other similar places too.

[Zydekitten]

xcellent....nawlins needs all the good people it can get...
what type of work would you like to do?
Well, I've had a lot of past professional lives (and maybe other kinds, who knows) - retail, office admin (banks, non-profits, radio stations, legal firms), theatre, software tech support/training . . . so I'm hoping that at least a tidbit of that experience can meet some needs in NOLA.

[bywterbro]

definitely...so many needs here..
i notice that alot of websites for businesses here are not kept up to
date very well....for example as of yesterday snug harbors website still is not showing its april calendar.......just a thought....
good luck....imho i dont think you will have any problem finding a job..

[denbear]

Well, I had work out here, but that's just ended and for many years - I was in a long-term relationship with a man who had two daughters that he shared custody of with his ex . . . and thus couldn't move. However, last year we broke up - so no job, no man . . . I can now seriously begin to check out the job market in NOLA and work towards moving there - that's some of what I'll be doing in the daze between during Fest.

Well, just keep casting that net out there, z-kit, and I'm certain you'll snag yo'self one helluva dude!!!

[Zydekitten]

Well, just keep casting that net out there, z-kit, and I'm certain you'll snag yo'self one helluva dude!!!
Well, as it happens - I already have and he's even from New Orleans - you know, YOU!!! :)

[stlbarb]

Well, as it happens - I already have and he's even from New Orleans!!! Funny how life works out . . . :)

the plot thickens.... :)

i was more concerned about finding affordable housing than you finding a job, now i can just do the 'new job' chants for ya.

[Corona]

I'm not saying New Orleans is not a dangerous city, I'm just tired of the national press writing all this negative crap about my beloved N'awlins. They could have come to town 10 years ago and wrote the same story. When I was looking at property 12 years ago in the Marigny Triangle, tourists did not cross Esplanade. Now it is a "hip" neighborhood that has become an extension of the Quarter. Crime is worse now compared to pre-K, but still better than the mid 90's. Conclusion....?...draw your own.
me too Greg...me too. I read that shit, I get scared....then i realize damn, my favorite hang outs are in Detroit! The next dangerous city on the list. She was dangerous before the storm...she's dangerous now. I can't stop visiting because of that, and I sure as hell am NOT going to stay in after dark. I don't know the answer but I do understand the locals arming themselves...if you can't feel safe where you live, that anxiety, over time, will put you over the edge :(

[pokerchick66]

Well, just keep casting that net out there, z-kit, and I'm certain you'll snag yo'self one helluva dude!!!

Hey Denbear! Welcome to the bored and nice to meet ya!! You sure got yourself one helluva woman there. Ya did good. :D

[Corona]

me too Greg...me too. I read that shit, I get scared....then i realize damn, my favorite hang outs are in Detroit! The next dangerous city on the list. She was dangerous before the storm...she's dangerous now. I can't stop visiting because of that, and I sure as hell am NOT going to stay in after dark. I don't know the answer but I do understand the locals arming themselves...if you can't feel safe where you live, that anxiety, over time, will put you over the edge :(
having said that....I wouldn't buy one myself....but I do "understand" where they're coming from. Guns are banned in Canada and thank gawd for that. Even with the gun laws though, the incidents of murders by handguns are increasing up here...again, I don't have the answers...the whole thing makes me sick and breaks my heart for Nola and her people :(

[Corona]

Well, just keep casting that net out there, z-kit, and I'm certain you'll snag yo'self one helluva dude!!!
well look who joined the bored! Welcome Denbear, can't wait to meet you!!!!

[bywterbro]

right on ms. C

[marignygreg]

I too would wander down to Dream Palace,Cafe Brazil and Snug Harbor by way of Checkpoint Charlies and Frenchmen Street but NEVER down Royal or even Chartres. Now I will even walk down Dauphine or from my house on Burgundy. More guns on the street is never good because alot end up in the hands of bad guys. Anyway, what am I supposed to do with a gun? Bring it out every time I want to take walk past dark and have my finger on the trigger when I see a possible Thug?? How many times have you been a little uneasy with someone coming your way only to have that person give you a W'here Y'at when he walks by. Am I supposed to have my weapon ready to fire on that person ?? And if that person wants to rob me do I turn into Dirty Harry and start firing or do I hand over my wallet ?? How about Tazer Guns ?

[csoul]

Alright, maybe I'm naive, look at the world through rose-colored glasses, and choose to always see the good. I'd rather be that way than go through life always worried and afraid.
I live 10 minutes from Richmond, Va. At one point in time (in the last 10 - 15 years I believe) Richmond was the murder capital of the nation. I was still out at the bars every weekend, roaming the streets BY MYSELF, and never thought twice about it. WHY? Because I knew which streets to walk down and which ones not to.
Now, New Orleans has the distinction of being the murder capital of the nation and Richmond has supposedly cleaned up her act. Well guess what. If the national news media covered every murder in Richmond, they would run out of time to cover anything else. Every night at 10:00pm, I turn on the local news and the first story IS ALWAYS "Someone shot on Hull Street".
What major U.S. city doesn't have it's crime, murder, and "dark ugly side"?

I will say this, New Orleans is the only city I have EVER been in where the guy peeing on the street corner actually stopped, "mid-stream" and said to me "I'm so sorry, ma'am". Come on!!! Where does that happen?

There's a part of me that's a realist and understands there is a problem in New Orleans, but I choose to focus on the good.

[Zydekitten]

Alright, maybe I'm naive, look at the world through rose-colored glasses, and choose to always see the good. I'd rather be that way than go through life always worried and afraid.
I live 10 minutes from Richmond, Va. At one point in time (in the last 10 - 15 years I believe) Richmond was the murder capital of the nation. I was still out at the bars every weekend, roaming the streets BY MYSELF, and never thought twice about it. WHY? Because I knew which streets to walk down and which ones not to.
Now, New Orleans has the distinction of being the murder capital of the nation and Richmond has supposedly cleaned up her act. Well guess what. If the national news media covered every murder in Richmond, they would run out of time to cover anything else. Every night at 10:00pm, I turn on the local news and the first story IS ALWAYS "Someone shot on Hull Street".
What major U.S. city doesn't have it's crime, murder, and "dark ugly side"?

I will say this, New Orleans is the only city I have EVER been in where the guy peeing on the street corner actually stopped, "mid-stream" and said to me "I'm so sorry, ma'am". Come on!!! Where does happen?

There's a part of me that's a realist and understands there is a problem in New Orleans, but I choose to focus on the good.
Good on ya, Csoul!! :D

[marignygreg]

Corrona,ibjmn and Co. I looked for you guys at Zulu fest to no avail. I did not arrive till Big Al was playing and failed to wear my painting pants. We will catch up another time.

[linza22]

hell, look at charlotte nc stats. we're looking really bad these days, but for me, i don't feel it. (clicking heels of red ruby shooooes...with eyes closed)

[ibjamn]

Corrona,ibjmn and Co. I looked for you guys at Zulu fest to no avail. I did not arrive till Big Al was playing and failed to wear my painting pants. We will catch up another time.


You're coming to fest, right??

[Corona]

You're coming to fest, right??
no he's not :(

I'm sad we missed you too Greg...we were at the smaller stage with Charmaine Neville and stuff....it was crazy that day!!!

[denbear]

Well, as it happens - I already have and he's even from New Orleans - you know, YOU!!! :)

... it's really not my habit to intrude
Furthermore, I hope my meaning won't be lost or misconstrued
but I'll repeat myself, at the risk of being crude
"Well, just keep casting that net out there, z-kit,
and I'm certain you'll snag yo'self one helluva dude!!!".
This is my 2nd, yet final posting. Denbear out.

[mightyradgumbo]

37% of all statistics are made up on the spot. ;)

That being one of them LOL
I agree that stats can be used to your need...In one of the original smoking death trials some years ago there were a couple of stats related to deaths per capita and deaths per age group that were used by both the prosecution AND the defense. If that ain't bending them to your need, I am not sure what is.

Another thing to keep in mind is that crime stats are kept per capita. If you have a non-reestablished population like NOLA where the crime rate is growing exponentally faster than the residency it will be out of whack. Right now, population-wise NOLA is not a major city, it is a mid-size city. It currently has approx 155K perm residents. Therefore statistically any substantial amount of crime is going to make headlines.

What the residents, and yes interested parties such as myself who are looking very hard at moving there, need to do is continue the pressure on the politicos of the area to keep the crime issue at the forefront of the docket.

I resided in Brockton, Massachusetts for many years. Moved there as a kid and grew up and out of it. It was a small suburban community(45K residents) when I moved there. Due to the influx of a large group of people looking to avoid the increased housing costs in the city and to avoid dealing with the busing issues of the mid-70s it rose to over 100K people. Along with the influx of a large group of hard-working people came the rif-raf preying on these hard working folks. The crime rate soared because we failed to keep an eye as it elevated and soon lost control of it. At one point we had a higher per capita murder rate than just about any city in the country. Due to proper enforcement and efforts through the community we were able to reign it in. Recently, when things had been quiet for a few years there was another surge. The city is working on reducing this crime as I type.

My point in this is that we need, if we care about the city, to make sure it remains a focal point. As it has been mentioned you can't just expect the press to show up for the ribbon cuttings and the community activism issues-they are our paparazi-there in good times and bad times. We just have to provide more good times for them to broadcast.